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1993 | nr 113 | 123
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Kursy akcji notowanych na giełdzie papierów wartościowych w Warszawie w świetle współczesnej teorii rynku kapitałowego

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Warianty tytułu
Share Prices Quated at the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the Light of the Contemporary Theory of the Capital Market
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PL
Abstrakty
Celem pracy jest udzielenie odpowiedzi na pytanie, w jakim zakresie kursy akcji notowanych na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie spełniają kryteria efektywności. Próba odpowiedzi oparta jest na dwóch metodach badań. Metoda pierwsza polega na statystycznej analizie zmian kursów akcji oraz związków pomiędzy kursami a innymi zmiennymi ekonomicznymi, które zgodnie ze wskazaniami teorii wpływają na poziom kursów. Metoda druga sprowadza się do weryfikacji niektórych narzędzi wykorzystywanych przez różne strategie inwestowania. Wyższa skuteczność strategii fundamentalnej oraz strategii efektywnego rynku niż strategii technicznej może stanowić dodatkowy argument potwierdzający efektywność giełdy w kształtowaniu kursów akcji.
EN
The paper deals with the analysis of the share prices quated at the Warsaw Stock Exchange from the beginning of its activities till December 15,1992, The aim of the analysis is to answer the question about the effectiveness of the quated share prices within the meaning of the contemporary theory of the capital market. The problems raised in the paper concern the grounds of the contemporary theory of the capital market and the verification of the main theses of that theory based on the analysis of the processes occurring at the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Basing on the main theses of the contemporary theory of the capital market, in the empirical part of the paper a statistical analysis has been carried out concerning the changes in the share prices and the relations between the prices and other economic variables which, according to the instructions of that theory, influence the price level. Additionally, for experimental purposes, the verification of certain tools, used in various practical investment strategies, has been performed. The results point to the fact that in the analysed period a process of gradual rationalization of the price level took place. The prices made more and more allowances for fundamental factors (especially profit per share). The research done also proves that in the course of time the changes in the share prices became more random. In this connection it can be stated that the processes occurring at the Warsaw Stock Exchange confirm in part the thesis about the effectiveness of the capital market. (original abstract)
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