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1998 | nr 131 | 204
Tytuł artykułu

Modele przemian płodności w wybranych krajach europejskich w świetle drugiego przejścia demograficznego

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Models of Fertility Changes in Selected European Countries in the Light of the Second Demographic Transition
Języki publikacji
PL
Abstrakty
Przedmiotem pracy są prawidłowości, zgodnie z którymi dokonują się przemiany płodności społeczeństw wybranych krajów europejskich. Przedstawiono teorię przemian płodności społeczeństwa postindustrialnego, metody analizy dynamiki płodności, analizę dynamiki dzietności teoretycznej w latach 1946-1993 analizę rozkładów współczynników płodności. Przeprowadzono symulację charakterystyk kalendarza płodności na podstawie modeli wieloczynnikowych w wybranych krajach europejskich.
EN
The objective of the paper is to separate, compare and specify the factors conditioning the regularities according to which present changes in fertility, in selected European countries. occur. For that purpose two basic characteristics of the studied phenomenon have been analysed. They are total fertility rates, and fertility pattern. The problems are discussed in six chapters. In chapter One the objective of the work and verified hypotheses are formulated. The adopted fertility measures are defined. The sources of information used for empirical studies are given. Chapter Two deals with the conception of the second demographic transition, which formulates the regularities that govern the processes conditioning the procreation of a developed society. First, the general theory of demographic transition is discussed. Next, the second demographic transition is presented; its general conception, determinants and suitability of the suggested approach for investigation purposes, as regards the contemporary procreative behaviours in European countries, are discussed. Chapter Three deals with the methods which lead to the determination of the regularities according to which changes in the fertility of developed societies occur. Thus, Box- -Jenkins models are successively presented. Attention is given to the methods of studying the effects of exogenous factors (interrupted time series analysis) and constructions accepted as fertility patterns. Special importance is attached to Singh-Maddala distribution (Burrl2) which, when developed into a multifactor model, has made it possible to investigate the demographic and socioeconomic factors conditioning the changes in the fertility patterns. In chapter Four the results of estimation of Box-Jenkins models are presented. The results obtained at that stage of studies have made it possible to conclude that the similar, as regards the direction, general falling tendency of total fertility rates, in each individual country took a different course. In most of the investigated societies the changes in fertility were significantly affected by exogenous factors corresponding to the phases of the second demographic transition. In chapter Five estimated fertility patterns and multifactor models (with explanatory variables) are presented. On the basis of single-factor distributions changes and variations in fertility patterns, in time and between the compared countries, have been determined. Using the multifactor form of Singh-Maddala distribution (Burrl2) it has been found that the changes in the fertility patterns in the investigated set of countries can be explained by the variation in the average age of women at marriage, and in the level of gross domestic product per capita. In chapter Six the results of a simulation experiment are presented. It has made it possible to investigate the reaction of the density and hazard functions, as well as that of the selected descriptive parameters of fertility patterns to changes in the level of socioeconomic development and matrimonial behaviours. The parameters are: average age of mothers at childbearing, coefficient of variation, and asymmetry coefficient of the generated distributions. Finally, conclusions are formulated, being a recapitulation of the results of the performed analyses. The cover the problems connected with fertility dynamics studies, the problems of changes in fertility patterns, and the discussion of the results obtained, in the context of the second demographic transition. (original abstract)
Twórcy
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