Mechanizm kryzysów walutowych w świetle ostatnich zakłóceń na międzynarodowych rynkach finansowych
The Mechanism of Currency Crises in the Light of Recent Disturbances on International Financial Markets
W artykule poruszono problem kryzysów walutowych, jakie wystąpiły w Meksyku, krajach azjatyckich, Rosji. Uznano je za zwiastuna nowego rodzaju wyzwań, jakim świat będzie musiał stawić czoło w nadchodzącym XXI wieku.
The last few years have seen a succession of currency shocks. They wander from place to place, often in a totally unexpected way. While there are differences between them, these shocks are not without certain peculiar common features of a kind that were not generally observed in earlier monetary disturbances. To give an example, one peculiar feature of the present wave of currency disturbances is the fact that, unlike in similar past instances, the majority of countries affected by the crises have in recent years had a relatively well-stabilised public finance situation. It used to be that snowballing problems in that sphere (such as chronic budget deficits and a high and growing public debt) were the "classical" causes of monetary collapses. What is more, there is sometimes the suspicion that it is just their freshly acquired image of countries effectively putting their economic affairs in order that makes them tasty morsels attracting attention from a new breed of financial "predators", such as international market investment funds (e.g., the socalled hedge funds) are basically capable of being when they are focused on short-term arbitrary speculative considerations. And they are just the ones who are the active "actors" on today's international financial scene, basically different from the traditional commercial banks that dominated this scene in the past. These have been described as currency crises of the new type. They could be the harbingers of a new type of challenge that the world will have to face in the coming years. They are perhaps a foretaste "21st century crises".(original abstract)