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Leading Indicators for the Polish Economy
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W artykule przedstawiono stestowane wersje barometru ogólnogospodarczego. Prezentację wyników poprzedza omówienie metod i narzędzi analizy.
This is a follow-up study to the paper presented by the author at the OECD meeting on leading indicators held in Paris on 17-18th October 1996. The paper presents several alternative versions of the composite leading indicator (CLI) for the Polish economy based on OESD methodology (adapted to local conditions and the available data), confronted with the reference cycle described by a synthetic indicator of general economic activity (GCI). All the versions of CLI are well corelated with the reference cycle, but the leads observed are quite short and not very stable. Adding some long lead variables increases the length of the lead in the composite index. Nevertheless, the CLI referred to here, under the existing information gap, can mainly be used for monitoring purposes. At the same time, the reference indicator GCI can serve both to evaluate the current condition of economy and to generate extrapolative one year forecasts. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Strony
287--309
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Bibliografia
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