Warianty tytułu
The Use of the Variance and Discriminant Function Analyses for Studying the Effect of Stock Exchange Intelligence on Future Changes in Share Prices
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
Na początku artykułu uwagę skupiono na specyficznych zastosowaniach metod statystycznych w naukach ekonomicznych. Następnie przedyskutowano rodzaj informacji giełdowej i możliwości użycia jej dla przewidywania zmian cen akcji. Poruszono również problem efektywności rynku z punktu widzenia ogólnej dostępności do informacji i jego wpływu na aktualne ceny akcji.
In the beginning of paper attention is drawn to the specific application of statistical methods to economic sciences. Next, the sort of information available at close of the exchange and the possibility of using it for forecasting changes in share prices are discussed. The problem of the effectiveness of the market in view of the general accessibility of information and its reflection in current share prices is also dealt with. In part one of the paper the data on the companies AGROS and BIG, which in the investigated period showed a rising price tendency, are analysed. Using the analysis of variance, average changes in prices after the announcements of purchases and sales in bidding and extra bidding on the day before were determined. The same method was used to check the effects of such data as changes in prices on the preceding day, changes in the turnover volume, changes in the WIG index, and changes in total turnover value. Interactions between some variables were found. These dependences were explained in part by the discriminant function analysis, in which the discussed variables from earlier periods were classified into three groups of changes in supply and demand: the decreasing, steady, and increasing ones. In part two of the paper a similar analysis was used for the companies Espebepe and REMAK, which showed a decreasing share price tendency. Finally, investors' interpretations of the data on the above companies and directions of changes in share prices are compared. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
77--92
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
autor
Bibliografia
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
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Identyfikator YADDA
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