Czy kredyt hipoteczny rozwiąże polskie problemy sektora mieszkaniowego?
Will mortgage loans solve the problems of the Polish housing sector?
Omówiono zdolność kredytową gospodarstw domowych po kątem popytu i potrzeb mieszkaniowych w Polsce. Przybliżono bariery podażowe rozwoju sektora mieszkaniowego.
The market of housing loans in Poland has been developing very dynamically since the late 90s. Over the last two years, housing loan portfolios have gained importance in the banking sector, and the funds disbursed under housing loans have effect on the demand, especially in the housing construction market. The development in this category primarily reflected the decline in inflation, resulting in a reduction of interest rates, and, next, wider public access to loans. With their long maturity periods and high value as compared to the income of the public, these loans are extremely sensitive to the level of interest rates. Therefore, low level of inflation is a prerequisite for further development of their portfolio, and thus for stimulating the growth in the housing sector. Further facilitation of their availability will require restraining credit risk, including the sectoral credit risk. Rational estimates of housing needs, housing demand and creditworthiness show that even under current circumstances housing loans can become a crucial determinant of the sector's growth. However, it is necessary to reduce strong obstacles to supply. Otherwise, the granted loans will stimulate the growth in the prices of flats. (original abstract)