Dynamika konwergencji Polski z Unią Europejską

• Autorzy: Jakub Growiec

Warianty tytułu

Poland's Convergence with the European Union

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

W literaturze dyskutowana jest często hipoteza konwergencji, wynikająca z neoklasycznych modeli wzrostu. Badania empiryczne wskazują jednak, że aby konwergencja doszła do skutku, muszą być spełnione dodatkowe warunki. Procesy takie jak integracja gospodarcza, bezpośrednie inwestycje zagraniczne, międzynarodowe transfery, oraz rozprzestrzenianie się technologii i wiedzy, powinny pomóc Polsce doścignąć mniej wpływowe kraje Unii Europejskiej. Dostępne dane nie są jednakże wystarczające, do pozytywnego zweryfikowania hipotezy o konwergencji w Polsce. Przewidywania dotyczące jej potencjalnego wpływu na polską gospodarkę mogą być uzyskane poprzez podejście pośrednie. Ogólnie biorąc Polska potrzebuje około 55 lat, aby osiągnąć 80 procent średniego poziomu PKB 15 starych członków Unii (przed ostatnim rozszerzeniem).

EN

The convergence hypothesis, an implication of neoclassical growth models, is frequently discussed in literature. Empirical research shows that several additional conditions need to be met for convergence to take place. Processes such as economic integration, foreign direct investment, international transfers and knowledge and technology diffusion should help Poland catch up with more affluent European Union member states. Available data is insufficient, however, for a positive verification of the convergence hypothesis in Poland. Predictions of its potential impact on the Polish economy can be obtained thanks to an indirect approach. Overall, Poland needs about 55 years to reach 80 procent of the average GDP level in the 15 "old" EU member states (before the last round of enlargement). (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Konwergencja; Modele wzrostu; Prognozowanie zjawisk ekonomiczno-społecznych

EN

Convergence; Growth model; Economic and social phenomenon forecasting

• Czasopismo: Gospodarka Narodowa
• Rocznik: 2005
• Numer: nr 5-6
• Strony: 101--118

Twórcy

autor

Jakub Growiec

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