Droga Polski do Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej - perspektywy, szanse i zagrożenia

• Autorzy: Eric Ringhut , Philipp Gerlach

Warianty tytułu

Poland's Way to EMU - Prospects, Risks and Chances

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Artykuł jest próbą odpowiedzi na pytanie, jaki model polityki monetarnej Polska powinna wybrać w przededniu uzyskania pełnego członkostwa w Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej EMU. Opisano proces przechodzenia od statusu państwa kandydującego do statusu pełnego członka UE i EMU. Przedstawiono najważniejsze wskaźniki ekonomiczne decydujące o wyborze polityki monetarnej.

EN

This paper deals with the question of what currency regime Poland should choose in the eve of EMU membership. This question seems to be highly important and on a top rank on agendas of international monetary economists because of the characteristics of CEECs, the recent break down of a currency board system (a hard peg that many countries apply) in Argentina and the clear future perspective of becoming EMU member. Especially the latter is interesting as Poland started transforming with a hard peg, moved towards a free float and will finally join a monetary union. Although this paper concentrates on Poland, it is interesting to note that the variety of currency regimes among the applicant countries is quite large. This heterogeneity is somewhat peculiar since all countries negotiate with the EU, undertake most of their international trade with the EU countries and share the same future perspective. Nevertheless, there are. differences in those countries that justify different currency regimes. Our focus will be on Poland and we try to lay down the pros and cons of two options for Poland. We first briefly describe the transition from an EU-candidate to a full member of the EU and EMU. We then highlight the most important economic indicators for the choice of the currency regime in section 3. In section 4 we go into detail about a free float which we assume to be a close proxy of a managed float for a theoretical discussion. A managed float is compatible whit ERM II and simultaneously represents one corner of the spectrum of possible regime for EMU applicants. One the other hand we analyse a curreny board system as well as a unilateral euroization as the other corner of the spectrum. Especially the latter gained enormous interest within the last 10 years. We finally try to recommend a particular regime on the basis of Poland's current economic condition and perspective that is able to ensure stability, maintain competitiveness, promote structural reforms and help to meet the Maastricht criteria. Section 5 summarizes our findings. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Unia Gospodarcza i Walutowa (UGW); Polityka pieniężna; Euro

EN

Economic and Monetary Union (EMU); Monetary policy; Euro

• Czasopismo: Prace Naukowe Akademii Ekonomicznej we Wrocławiu
• Rocznik: 2005
• Numer: nr 1056 Rozszerzenie Unii Europejskiej na Wschód - aspekty ekonomiczne : (ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem Polski)
• Strony: 62--93

Twórcy

autor

Eric Ringhut

autor

Philipp Gerlach

Bibliografia

• Backe P. (1999), Exchange Rate Regimes in Central and Eastern Europe: A Brief Review of Recent Changes, Current Issues and Future Challenges, [w:] Österreichische Nationalbank, Focus on Transition, No. 2, s. 47-67.
• Begg D., Eichengreen B., Halpern L., von Hagen J., Wypłosz C., (2001), Sustainable Regimes of Capital Movements in Accession Countries, [w:] Center for Economic Policy Research, Final Report, url: http://www.bundesbank.de/vo/download/konferenzen/200110konf_hagen.pdf.
• Berg A., Borensztein E., (2000), The Pros and Cons of Full Dollariwtion, [w:] IMF Working Paper WP/00/50.
• Boone L., Maurel M, (1999), An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs, [w:] CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 2119. Borowski J., (1999), How prone is Poland to exogenous asymmetric shocks ?, [w:] "Yearbook of Polish European Studies", No. 3, s. 33-43.
• Bratowski A., Rostowski J., (2000), The EU attitude to Unilateral Euroization: Misunderstandings, real concerns and ill-designed admission criteria, url: http://www.geocities.com/euroize/Misunder.doc.
• Brüggemann A., Linne T., (2002), Are the Central and Eastern European transition countries still vulnerable to a financial crisis! Results from the Signals Approach, [w:] Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT Discussion Papers, No. 5, url: http://www.bof.fi/bofit/fin/6dp/abs/pdf/dp0502.pdf.
• Buiter W.H., (2000), Optimal Currency Areas: Why does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?, [w:] CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 2366.
• Buiter W.H., Grafe C, (2002), Anchor, Float or Abandon Ship: Exchange Rate Regimes for the Accession Countries, [w:] Conference paper for the 10th Anniversary Conference of the European Bank for Reconstructzion and Development on December 13 and 14 in London, UK.
• Calvo G.A., Reinhart C.M., (2000), Fear of Floating, [w:] NBER Working Paper No. w7993.
• Coricelli F., (2001), Exchange rate arrangements in the transition to EMU: Some Arguments in .Favor of an early adoption of the Euro, url: http://eu-enlargement.org/discuss/attachments/D745FC75-C8C-11 D5-A2EB-0050DA76D265.PDF.
• Corker R., Beaumont C., Elkan van R., Iakova D., (2000), Exchange Rate Regimes in Selected Advanced Transition Economies - Coping with Transition, Capital Inflows, and EU Accession, [w:] IMF Policy Discussion Paper PDP/00/3.
• ECB (2002), Dialog des Eurosystems mit EU-Beitrittsländern, [w:] Monatsbericht.
• Egert B., (2002), Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in transition: Do we understand what we see?, [w:] Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT Discussion Papers, No. 6, url: http://www.bof.fi/bofit/fin/6dp/abs/pdf/dp0602.pdf.
• Feige E.L., Dean J.W., (2002), Dollarization and Euroization in Transition Countries: Currency Substitution, Asset Substitution, Network Externalities and Irreversibility, Paper presented at the Fordham University International Conference on "Euro and Dollarization: Forms of Monetary Union in Integrating Regions", April 5-6, 2002, New York.
• Fidrmuc J., Schardax F., (2002), The 'Pre-Ins' Ante Portas? Euro Area Enlargement, Optimum Currency Area, and Nomalnal Covergence, [w:] R. Caesar H.-E. Scharrer (eds.), European Economic and Monetary Union: An Initial Assessment, Baden-Baden, Nomos, s. 317-340.
• Frankel J.A., Rose A.K., (1998), The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, [w:] "The Economic Journal", vol. 108, s. 1009-1025.
• Frensch R., (2001), Some perspectives on Currency relations between EMU and Central and East Eurpean EU accession countries, [w:] Economic Systems, vol. 25, No. 3, s. 175-181, url: http://www.lrz-muenchen.de/~oeim/frensch5.pdf.
• Click R., Rose A.K., (2001), Does a Currency Union affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence, [w:] NBER Working Paper, No. 8396, url: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8396.
• Habib M.M., (2001), Is there a Case for Unilateral Euroization? Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, [w:] University of Rome "La Sapienza", CNEM Discussion Paper, No 19, url:http://www.london.edu/cnem/Current_Research/Banking/banking.html