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## Bank i Kredyt

2006 | nr 3 | 62--66
Tytuł artykułu

### Giełda Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie jako barometr polskiej gospodarki

Autorzy
Warianty tytułu
The Warsaw Stock Exchange as a barometer of the Polish economy
Języki publikacji
PL
Abstrakty
Celem opracowania jest zbadanie relacji zachodzących między koniunkturą gospodarczą naszego kraju, reprezentowaną przez zmiany PKB, a koniunkturą giełdową określaną przez zmiany wartości głównego indeksu Giełdy Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie. Przeprowadzone badanie pozwala stwierdzić, że na polskim rynku papierów wartościowych nie sprawdza się teza, że Giełda Warszawska jest barometrem polskiej gospodarki.
EN
The article presents the current level of development of one of the main institutions of the securities market in Poland: the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The quantitative development in the 15 years of its functioning places the Stock exchange among the leading stock exchanges of Central-Eastern Europe. Unfortunately, it is still far from the level associated with the leading stock exchanges of Western Europe (i.a. in Luxemburg, England, Finland, Spain and Germany). As shown in the article, it is due to the still small number of public companies quoted at the Warsaw Stock Exchange in relation to the total number of economic entities (at the end of 2005 there were 255 listed companies, which constitutes merely ca. 0.007% of all economic entities). The index measuring maturity and the economic importance of the capital market, i.e. the value of the stock exchange market in the GDP of Poland at the end of 2004 was also low and amounted to ca. 33%. In 2004 the strategy for the development of the capital market "Warsaw City 2010 Agenda" was prepared, which assumes that in 2010 the value of the Polish capital market should be on the average EU level and amount to more than 50%. The aim of the article was to show relations between the economic climate in our country, represented by changes in the GDP, and the climate at the stock exchange determined by the changes of the main index at the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The research presented in the article in a graphic and econometric form allows to conclude that the Polish stock exchange does not corroborate the thesis of the Warsaw stock exchange functioning as the barometer of the Polish economy. It is certainly due to the small share of public companies in the total number of economic entities and a low value of the stock exchange in the GDP. In order to verify the thesis, the article presents an econometric model of relation between the climate at the stock exchange and the economic climate in general. It should be noted that over a shorter period the analysed model showed a poorer correspondence with the reality while in the longer period which saw the functioning and strengthening of the Polish stock exchange market in a developing free market economy, the studied model proved better adapted. Thus, conducting analyses of this kind in the future will be justified, taking account of a longer period under study and the increased maturity of the stock exchange system, which should describe the changes taking place in the Polish economy more precisely.(original abstract)
Słowa kluczowe
PL
EN
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
62--66
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
autor
Bibliografia
• D. Appenzeller, B. Guzik, W. Jurek: Prognozowanie i symulacje. Poznań 2004 Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Poznaniu, s. 26-28.
• Budżet 2002. Byle nie wyszli na ulice. "Newsweek" nr 13/2001, s. 65.
• M. Daniluk: Rynek kapitałowy. Warszawa 1998 Bellona, s. 31.
• B. Guzik, W. Jurek: Podstawowe metody ekonometrii. Poznań 2003 Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Poznaniu, s. 13.
• B. Wyżnikiewicz: Na parkiecie jednak lepsi. "Home & Market" nr 7/2000, s. 96.
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Bibliografia
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