The Challenge of Economic and Monetary Union: Lessons from Italy's Experience
Treść / Zawartość
Wyzwania Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej: wnioski z doświadczeń Włoch
W artykule dokonano przeglądu wyników gospodarczych Włoch oraz polityki prowadzonej przed przystąpieniem do Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej, a w szczególności jej uzależnienia od deprecjacji kursu walutowego w celu utrzymania konkurencyjności za cenę rosnącej inflacji. Przedstawiono wnioski dla Polski.
This article briefly reviews Italy's economic performance and policies prior to European Monetary Union (EMU) membership and, in particular, their reliance on exchange rate depreciations to maintain competitiveness at the cost of accelerating inflation. The tightening of the exchange rate policy following membership in the European Monetary System (EMS) did bring down inflation but also led to the financial and exchange rate crisis of September 1992, with its silver lining of finally spurring adjustment in the public finances. It is now clear that the insistence on nominal convergence only and the consequent focus on the Maastricht criteria detracted from attending sufficiently to needed structural reforms to improve a growth potential that was already faltering. In fact, Italy's potential growth has declined significantly since the mid-1990s to just over 1 per cent a year in this decade entirely as a result of a decline in total factor productivity. This in turn has resulted in a significant appreciation of the real exchange rate of a magnitude comparable to that that led to the 1992 crisis. Similarly, five years of profligate public finances since 2000 have by now undone most of the progress made in the 1990s. Since membership in the euro area precludes the reoccurrence of such a crisis, what will spur adjustment now? The lesson to be drawn for new candidates to euro membership, such as Poland, is to concentrate on structural adjustment and not only on nominal convergence and avoid a dash towards membership. (original abstract)
- Brandolini N. and P. Cippolone (2001), Multifactor Productivity and Labour Quality in Italy 1981-2000, "Economic Research Discussion Papers", No. 422, Bank of Italy, Rome.
- Ciocca H (2003), L' Economic Italiana: Un Problema di Crescita, "Banca d' Italia Bollettino Economico", November, Bank of Italy, Rome.
- Duval R. and J. Elmeskov (2006), The Effects Of EMU on Structural Reforms in Labour and Product Markets, "Working Paper", No. 596, March, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main. Third ECB Central Banking Conference, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main.
- EC (2005a), Convergence Report, "European Economy", No. 2, European Commission, Brussels.
- EC (2005b), Annual Report on Structural Reforms, European Commission Economic Policy Committee, Brussels.
- EC (2006), The Impact of Aging on Pubic Expenditure: Projections for the EU25 Member States on Pensions, Health Care, Long-term Care, Education and Unemployment Transfers (2004 - 2050), "European Economy.
- Special Report", No. 1, European Commission Economic Policy Committee and European Commission, Brussels.
- ECB (2004a), Convergence Report, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main.
- ECB (2004b), The New EU Member States Convergence and Stability, in: C. Detkin, V. Gaspar, G. Noblet (eds.)
- EMI (1996), Convergence Report, European Monetary Institute, Frankfurt am Main.
- EMI (1998), Convergence Report, European Monetary Institute, Frankfurt am Main.
- Faini R. (2003), Fu vero Declino? L' Italia degii anni Novanta, "II Mulino", Vol. VII, No. 410. pp. 1072-1083. Faini R. and A. Sapir (2005) Un Modello Obsoleto? Crescita e Specializzazione deU'Economia Italiana, Fondazione Rodolfo De Benedetti.
- IMF (1993), Italy, "Article IV Consultation Reports", IMF, Washington D.C.
- IMF (1999), Italy, "Article IV Consultation Reports", IMF Washington D.C.
- IMF (2005a), Italy, "Article IV Consultation Reports", IMF, Washington D.C.
- IMF (2005b), Republic of Poland, "Article IV Consultation Reports", IMF, Washington D.C.
- Larch M. (2005), Stuck in a Rut? Italy's Weak Export Performance and Unfavorable Product Specialisation,"Country Focus", December, ECFIN, Brussels.
- Larch M. (2004), Delegated to the League of Laggards? Roots of Italy's Slow Potential Growth, "Country Focus", April, ECFIN, Brussels.
- MEF (1996), Documento di Programinazione Economico-Finanziaria. Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze, Rome.
- MEF (2006), Documento di Programmazione Economico-Finanziaria, Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze, Rome.
- Nicoletti G. (2002), Institutions, Economic Structure and Performance: Is Italy Doomed?, in: ISAE, Annual Report on Monitoring Italy, January, Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses (ISAE), Rome.
- Pagano P. and F. Schivardi (2003), Firm Size Distribution and Growth, "Scandinavian Journal of Economics", Vol. 105, No. 2, pp. 255-274.
- Republic of Poland (2006), Convergence Programme 2005 Update, January, Warsaw.
- Rossi S. (1998), La Politica Economica Italiana 1968-1998, Editori La Terza, Bari.
- Roubini N. (2006), L' Italia e il rischio Argentina, "Libera Opinione", January, http://www.liheraopinione.it.
- Schadler S., Drammond P., Kuijs L., Murgasova Z. and Elkan R. (2005), Adopting the Euro in Central Europe Challenges of the Next Step in European Integration, "Occasional Paper", No. 234, IMF, Washington D.C.
- Signorini F. L., Visco I. (1997), L' Economia Italiana, Il Mulino, Bologna.
- Visco I. (2003), E' Veramente in Declino 1'Economia Italiana?, "Aspenia", No. 21, Aspen Institute Italia, Rome.
- Zecchini S. and M. Ventura (2005), Euro Changeover and Inflation in Italy: The Empirical Evidence, "Review of Economic Conditions in Italy", No. 2, pp. 315-341.