Kształtowanie się elastyczności podaży płodów rolnych w Polsce. Podejście dualne
The Shaping of the Flexibility of Farm Produce Supply in Poland. A Dual Approach
The access of Poland to the European Union means the growth of domestic prices for farm products; at present, the Union prices are much higher than those in Poland. We should anticipate a rise in the supply of farm products. For numerous reasons, importance should be attached to the question concerning the scale of this supply, which will remain unanswered unless one resorts to empiric studies on supply flexibility. The intention of this article is to present calculations of the price flexibility of farm produce supply with the application of the duality theory, perceived as the theoretically most cohesive. The research encompasses the flexibility of the supply of grain, potatoes, rape, cattle, pigs, and milk as well as demand flexibility for mineral fertilisers. The duality theory is based on a neoclassical premise which maintains that in the conditions of a market economy, economic subjects aim at the maximalisation of profit. In reference to our particular analysis, this premise is rendered more detailed and claims that individual farmers have no influence on the prices of farm produce or the prices of the means of their production, and thus select the number of measures and the size of the production in such a way so as to maximalise the difference between the value of production and its costs. A three-step method of smallest squares was used as a technique for estimating suitable parameters in the system of equations with the use of spatial data. Parameters describing the quality of the estimated equations suggest that the estimation was conducted correctly and the employed data explain well the observed supply reactions. The authors calculated both the Marshal uncompensated flexibility and the Hicks compensated flexibility. Upon the basis of those calculations the simulation models recommend to use the following values of supply flexibility: 0.5 for grain, 0.15 for potatoes, 0.7 for cattle, 0.025 for pigs, 0.7 for milk and -0.25 for mineral fertilisers. The price supply flexibility for rape (2.8) appears to be overly large and at present it is advised not to use it for the purposes of modelling. (original abstract)
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