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2007 | nr 758 | 5--22
Tytuł artykułu

Zarys ewolucji koncepcji kursu walutowego równowagi

Warianty tytułu
The Evolution of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate Concept
Języki publikacji
Ukazano z perspektywy historycznej trzy tradycje badawcze, które wykształciły się w czasie prac nad kursem równowagi. Pierwsza bazuje na teorii parytetu siły nabywczej, druga na równowadze makroekonomicznej (fundamentalnej), a trzecia na równowadze behawioralnej.
The aim of this article is to present the equilibrium exchange rate concept in a historical perspective. The evolution of this concept is divided into five time periods delineated by: the end of World War I, the end of World War II (and the ensuing need to bring order to international financial relations), the crisis of the inter-war years, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, and currency integration processes (in the 1990s). The author contends that economic theory contains three parallel but different concepts of the equilibrium exchange rate and each of these has formed the basis for a separate research tradition. The first tradition is based on the purchasing power parity theory, the second on macroeconomic (fundamental) equilibrium, and the third on behavioural equilibrium. Estimates of the equilibrium exchange rate based on the purchasing power parity theory, although frequently criticised using arguments questioning the theory's validity, remain a kind of point of reference in various types of analyses whose authors attempt to distinguish their own approaches and results or support their own calculations with an additional argument (insofar as they are to the certain degree consistent with the implications of the purchasing power parity theory). Cassel has been recognised as the precursor of this tradition. The key criterion for determining the equilibrium exchange rate is - according to the second research tradition initiated by Keynes - the correspondence of a given exchange rate with macroeconomic equilibrium, perceived much more broadly than the condition of price equalisation domestically and abroad (no possibility for goods arbitrage). It was established that the third research tradition, identified by Artus, originates from studies dedicated to explaining exchange rate fluctuations. Based on this tradition, no equilibrium conditions are adopted a priori, but a model is sought to explain exchange rate fluctuations. The equilibrium exchange rate is determined by correcting the variables that determine the exchange rate such that the values only take into account lasting changes in these variables.(original abstract)
Opis fizyczny
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