The US Current Account Deficit: Smoothly Along the Adjustment Path

• Autorzy: Rui Mano

Warianty tytułu

Deficyt obrotów bieżących w USA: bezproblemowy proces korekty

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Current global imbalances are a source of concern for most economic policy leaders and scholars. As important as explaining how the present situation arose, it is relevant to have a prospective view of what is to follow. The aim of this work is to discuss adjustment and sustainability of the US Current Acount deficit and prospective impacts for the world. US Current Account deficit has reached new all time highs, so it seems interesting to assess its adjustment. Based on recent literature and data, an argument for smooth adjustment is put forward. Firstly, theoretical foundations behind a potential smooth adjustment are presented; secondly, soft landing scenarios are tested using Cavallo and Tille (2006) model. The main conclusion is that a soft landing of the dollar is possible. Most importantly, some factors normally unaccounted for might facilitate this smoother resolution. (original abstract)

Obecne stany nierównowagi globalnej są źródłem zaniepokojenia większości przywódców gospodarczych i ekonomistów. Równie ważne jak wytłumaczenie przyczyn tej sytuacji staje się przedstawienie poglądu na temat tego, co nastąpi w przyszłości. Celem artykułu jest omówienie procesu korekty i trwałości amerykańskiego deficytu obrotów bieżących oraz jego znaczenia dla świata. Deficyt ten osiągnął najwyższy poziom w historii, a więc wydaje się, że ocena tej korekty będzie interesująca. Opierając się na literaturze tematu oraz danych, formułuje się tezę o płynnym przebiegu korekty. Przedstawione zostały teoretyczne podstawy potencjalnej korekty o płynnym przebiegu. Za pomocą modelu Cavallo i Tille (2006) zbadano scenariusze miękkiego lądowania. Najważniejszy wniosek brzmi: możliwe jest miękkie lądowanie dolara. Co ważniejsze, niektóre normalnie nieuwzględniane czynniki mogą ułatwić to łagodniejsze rozwiązanie. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Foreign trade turnover; Foreign trade deficit; Dollar; Exchange rates

PL

Obroty handlu zagranicznego; Deficyt w handlu zagranicznym; Dolar; Kurs walutowy

• Czasopismo: Bank i Kredyt
• Rocznik: 2007
• Numer: nr 11-12
• Strony: 47--59

Twórcy

autor

Rui Mano

Bibliografia

• Backus D., Henriksen E., Lambert E and Telmer C. (2005), Current account fact and fiction, "Working Paper", Stern School of Business, New York University, New York.
• Baily M., Lawrence R. (2006), Can America Still Compete or Does It Need a New Trade Paradigm?, "Policy Briefs in International Economics", No. PB06-9, December, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.
• Bernanke B. (2005), The Global Savings Glut and the Current Account Deficit, Speech at the Sandridge Lecture, Virginia Association of Economics, March 10, Richmond.
• Blanchard O., Giavazzi E, Sa F (2005), The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar, February, "Working Paper", No. 11137, NBER, Cambridge.
• Caballero R" Farhi E. and Gourinchas P (2006), An eąuilibrium model of global imbalances and low interest rates, "Working Paper", No. 11996, NBER, Cambridge.
• Caballero R. (2006), On the macroeconomics of asset shortages, "Working Paper", No. 12753, NBER, Cambridge.
• Calvo G., Talvi E. (2006), The resolution of global imbalances: Soft landing in the North, sudden stop in emerging markets?, "Journal of Policy Modelling", Vol. 28, No. 6 (June), pp. 605-613.
• Cavallo M., Tille C. (2006), Could Capital Gains Smooth a Current Account Rebalancing?, "Staff Reports", No. 237, Federa! Reserve Bank of New York.
• Cline W. (2005), The US as a Debtor Nation: Risks and Policy Reform, Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.
• Dooley M.. Folkerts-Landau D., Garber P. (2004), The Revived Bretton Woods System: The Effects of Periphery Intervention and Reserve Management on Interest Rates & Exchange Rates in Center Countries, "Working Paper", No. 10332, NBER, Cambridge.
• Engel C., Rogers J. (2006), The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output, "Working Paper", No. 11921, NBER, Cambridge.
• Erceg C., Guerrieri L., Gust C. (2005), Expansionarv Fiscal shocks and the Trade Deficit, "International Finance Discussion Papers", No. 825 (January), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C.
• Gourinchas P. and Rey H. (2005), International Financial Adjustment, "Working Paper", No. 11155, NBER, Cambridge.
• Greenspan A. (2005), International Imbalances, 2 December, Speech before the Advancing Enterprise Conference, London.
• IMF (2006), World Economic Outlook. Economic Prospects and Policy Issues, April, Washington D.C.
• Krugman P. (1985), Is the Strong Dollar Sustainable?, in: The U.S. Dollar Recent Developments, Outlook, and Policy Options, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
• Krugman P. (1991), Has the Adjustment Process Worked?, in: F. Bergstein (ed.), International adjustment and financing: The lessons of 1985-1991, Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.
• Lane P., Milesi-Ferreti G. (2006), Exchange Rates and External Adjustment: Does Financial Globalization Matter?, "Discussion Paper", No. 129, Trinity College, Institute for International Integration Studies, Dublin.
• Mann C. (2005), Breaking up is Hord to Do: Global Co-Dependency, Collective Action, and the Challenges of Global Adjustment, "CESifo Forum", No. 1:2005 (January), pp. 16-23.
• Obstfeld M., Rogoff K. (2005), Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments, "Brookings Papers on Economic Activity", No. l, pp. 67-146.
• Roubini N., Setser B. (2004), The U.S. as a Net Debtor: The Sustainability of U.S. External Imbalances, "Briefing Paper", New York University, Stern School of Business, New York.
• Summers L. (2004), The United States and the Global Adjustment Process, March 23, Speech at the Third Annual Stavros S. Niarchos Lecture, Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.
• Ventura J. (2001), A Portfolio View of the US Current Account Deficit, "Brookings Papers on Economic Activity", No. 1. pp. 241-253.
• Wolf M. (2004), America on the comfortable path to ruin, "Financial Times", 17 August.