Kształtowanie się procesów zbieżności makroekonomicznej w Europejskiej Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej. Wnioski dla Polski

• Autorzy: Rafał Wielądek

Warianty tytułu

Course of Processes of Macroeconomic Convergence of European Economic and Monetary Union. Conclusions for Poland

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Przybliżono zagadnienia związane ze zbieżnością makroekonomiczną Unii Europejskiej i walutowej. Na przykładzie Portugalii pokazano rozbieżność „negatywną” oraz rozbieżność „pozytywną” na przykładzie Irlandii.

EN

The Author analyses processes of macroeconomic convergence in the context of the so-called criteria of the Maastricht nominal convergence, taking place in the twelve countries of the Euro zone in the years 1994-2006. There are successively presented: shaping of inflation rate, long-term interest rate, budgetary deficits and level of public indebtedness in the monetary union countries. The analysis allows preliminary selection of the groups of countries that characterise different levels of macroeconomic convergence. Then, the Author deepens the analysis on shaping macroeconomic convergence including the aspects of the so-called real convergence. The Author constructs a set of indicators of this kind of convergence based on the so-called macroeconomic stabilisation pentagram, supplemented with categories determining a competitive position of economies. Successively are presented: shaping of the real GDP, employment level, state of current account of balance of payments, unit labour costs and shaping of the real effective exchange rate in the twelve economies of the Euro zone countries. On the basis of the presented indicators, the Author specifies three groups of countries. The first one comprises countries of the monetary union "core" concentrated around the two largest economies of the Euro zone, i.e. Germany and France, which due to their sizes, determine the tendency of economic processes within the Community and which are followed by smaller interdependent countries. The second group comprises economies experiencing the process of divergence from the first group, although this process bears "negative" features (i.a. economies of Greece, Portugal and Italy). A counterbalance for this group of countries remains the third group including the countries that are also in the state of divergence in relation to the "core" countries, although this convergence bears "positive" features fi.a. economies of Ireland and Finland). In particular, the Author carried out the thorough analysis on the economic situation of Portugal and Ireland as the economies representing marginal phases of divergence (i.e. "negative" and "positive") in order to determine possible threats and success factors for the economy of Poland - the country that is preparing for the functioning in the Euro zone. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Unia Gospodarcza i Walutowa (UGW); Wskaźniki konwergencji; Konwergencja; Sytuacja makroekonomiczna

EN

Economic and Monetary Union (EMU); Convergence indicators; Convergence; Macroeconomic situation

• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe / Szkoła Główna Handlowa. Kolegium Gospodarki Światowej
• Rocznik: 2007
• Numer: nr 22
• Strony: 24--45

Twórcy

autor

Rafał Wielądek

Bibliografia

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