Płynny kurs walutowy w Polsce - źródło wstrząsów asymetrycznych czy instrument ich łagodzenia?

• Autorzy: Jakub Borowski

Warianty tytułu

Floating Exchange Rate in Poland - Source of Asymmetric Shocks or Instrument of Mitigating Them?

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Wyniki międzynarodowych badań empirycznych nie dają jednoznacznych podstaw do stwierdzenia, czy płynny kurs walutowy stanowi źródło wstrząsów oddziałujących na gospodarkę. Przedstawiona analiza pozwala jednak postawić tezę, że w okresie stosowania przez Polskę płynnego kursu walutowego zmiany realnego efektywnego kursu złotego były źródłem wstrząsów dla polskiej gospodarki. Jednocześnie brak interwencji walutowych oraz to, że przepływy dewiz pomiędzy Polską i zagranicą są zdominowane przez transakcje portfelowe (czemu sprzyja przedstawiona charakterystyka polskiego rynku walutowego), pozwalają oczekiwać, że kurs złotego będzie nadal źródłem wstrząsów dla polskiej gospodarki. (fragment artykułu)

EN

The costs related to a resignation from national currency and joining monetary union are usually analysed within the framework of the optimal currency areas (OCA) theory. The theoretical papers that make up the traditional OCA approach assumed that in the floating exchange rate regime the level of exchange rate is determined by the changes in the trade balance and thus, fluctuations in the supply and demand for domestic currency. It means that in case of the so-called asymmetric shocks (a decline in demand for exports in the country participating in monetary union and increase in domestic demand in other countries belonging to the common currency area) depreciation of the national currency and respective improvement in price competitiveness allow the economy to restore macroeconomic equilibrium. In the 1980s and 1990s a significant increase in capital flows was observed. As a corollary, in the countries with floating exchange rate regimes fluctuations in nominal exchange rate are less influenced by the shocks stemming from the goods market, while they depend to a greater extent on capital flows. Diminishing role of the factors traditionally perceived as macroeconomic fundamentals (current account balance and output gap) and rising impact of capital flows on exchange rates mean that the floating exchange rate regime may be a source of asymmetric macroeconomic shocks. This finding was not discussed within the traditional OCA framework. Which of the two concepts better reflects the role played by the floating exchange rate in economy is of a key significance for the balance of benefits and costs of participation in monetary union. If the floating exchange rate generates significant asymmetric shocks (i.e. there are significant deviations of exchange rate from the medium-term equilibrium), the cost of giving up monetary policy autonomy is lower than in the case when the level of exchange rate to a relatively large extent reflects economic fundamentals. The purpose of this paper is to find whether the floating exchange rate regime in Poland is a source of shocks affecting economy. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Kurs walutowy; Kształtowanie kursu walutowego; Rynek walutowy; Interwencje walutowe

EN

Exchange rates; Exchange rate developments; Foreign Exchange (FX); Currency interventions

• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe / Szkoła Główna Handlowa. Kolegium Gospodarki Światowej
• Rocznik: 2007
• Numer: nr 22
• Strony: 73--84

Twórcy

autor

Jakub Borowski

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