Reguła Taylora i jej rozszerzenia

• Autorzy: Paweł Baranowski

Warianty tytułu

The Taylor Rule and Its Extension

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Celem opracowania jest przegląd rozwiązań stosowanych w badaniach nad regułami polityki pieniężnej. Szczególną uwagę autor zwrócił na modyfikacje i rozszerzenia reguły Taylora. Autor przedstawił oryginalną regułę Talora oraz jej modyfikacje, aby następnie skoncentrować się na następujących zagadnieniach szczegółowych: charakterze stopy procentowej podlegającej wyjaśnieniu, specyfikacji dynamicznej równania oraz zasadności wykorzystania danych dostępnych w czasie podejmowania decyzji (real-time data), możliwości poszerzenia zbioru zmiennych objaśniających, sposobie pomiaru zmiennych objaśniających, postaci funkcyjnej oraz stabilności parametrów równania. Na koniec autor wskazał korzyści aplikacyjne, jakie płyną z badań nad regułą Taylora i dokonał syntetycznego podsumowania przeprowadzonych rozważań.

EN

The paper discusses the key aspects of research on a modern monetary policy rule proposed by American economist John B. Taylor in 1993. The Taylor rule stipulates how much the central bank should change the nominal interest rate in response to divergences of actual GDP from potential GDP and divergences of actual rates of inflation from a target rate of inflation. The rule recommends a relatively high interest rate (a "tight" monetary policy) when inflation is above its target or when the economy is above its full employment level, and a relatively low interest rate ("easy" monetary policy) in the opposite situations. Baranowski discusses many aspects of the Taylor rule, including the type of interest rates subject to analysis; the need to use real-time data; additional variables that may influence interest rates; the method of measuring variables; and the stability of the analyzed parameters. The paper also shows how the Taylor rule is used in practice. The rule can be used to analyze monetary policy, make international comparisons, and forecast interest rates. It can be an important component of both theoretical and empirical economic models, the author says. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Polityka pieniężna; Stopa procentowa; Inflacja; Teoria ekonomii; Reguła Taylora; Pełne zatrudnienie

EN

Monetary policy; Interest rate; Inflation; Economic theory; Taylor rule; Full employment

• Czasopismo: Gospodarka Narodowa
• Rocznik: 2008
• Numer: nr 7-8
• Strony: 1--23

Twórcy

autor

Paweł Baranowski

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