Adaptacyjne uczenie się a modelowanie i ocena polityki pieniężnej

• Autorzy: Michał Cierkoński

Warianty tytułu

Adaptive Learning and Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

W artykule omówiono zastosowanie technik badawczych wykorzystujących współczesną wersję założenia o ograniczonej racjonalności do standardowego modelu makroekonomicznego szkoły nowego keynesizmu. W podejściu tym realistycznie osłabia się hipotezę racjonalnych oczekiwań na rzecz założenia adaptacyjnego uczenia się przez uczestników życia gospodarczego jako sposobu na określenie przyszłych warunków gospodarowania. W artykule omówiono zalety i silne strony tego podejścia, jak też jego ograniczenia. Zastosowanie podejścia wykorzystującego adaptacyjne uczenie się publiczności pozwala na przekonujące i zgodne ze standardami metodologicznymi uzasadnienie zwiększania przejrzystości i wiarygodności prowadzonej polityki pieniężnej. W tym celu wykorzystuje się współczesne analizy polityki pieniężnej, zorientowane na maksymalizację dobrobytu poprzez optymalną stabilizację makroekonomiczną. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

This paper reviews the recent research into employing a new version of a bounded rationality approach to macroeconomic modeling in the standard new Keynesian model. In the study the hypothesis of rational expectations is realistically replaced with the assumption of adaptive learning of economic agents about the future economic conditions as a way of modeling the formation of expectations. The paper presents the merits and advantages as well as the limits of the adaptive learning approach and argues that the application of this approach provides a convincing rationale, both in theoretical and methodological terms, for greater transparency and credibility in central bank operations. To that end, the latest monetary policy analytical framework is used aiming at maximizing economic welfare through optimal macroeconomic stability. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Teoria racjonalnych oczekiwań; Proces uczenia się; Polityka pieniężna; Modele makroekonomiczne; Adaptacyjne uczenie się; Ograniczona racjonalność

EN

Rational expectations theory; Learning process; Monetary policy; Macroeconomic models; Adaptive learning; Bounded rationality

• Czasopismo: Bank i Kredyt
• Rocznik: 2008
• Numer: nr 6
• Strony: 16--36

Twórcy

autor

Michał Cierkoński

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