Krytyczne podejście do monetarystycznych modeli kursu walutowego

• Autorzy: Bogna Gawrońska-Nowak , Grzegorz Walerysiak

Warianty tytułu

Critical Approach Towards Monetarist Models of Exchange Rate.

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Zaprezentowano obowiązujący w Polsce system płynnego kursu walutowego i jego konsekwencje. Przedstawiono teoretyczne podstawy modeli monetarystycznych z krytycznym komentarzem dotyczącym empirycznej weryfikacji modelu.

EN

Recently, there has been high volatility of Polish exchange rate together with long run appreciation, which was dramatically inverted in last weeks observed. Exchange rate volatility matters for different economic actors in various ways (it depends on their positions in currency and good markets). Anyway, exchange rate forecasting is extremely important for all of them. The monetarist models can be easily applied (data on macro-fundamentals are quite accessible). In this paper we critically present three variants of the monetary models. The critical remarks refer mostly to empirical verification of the models, which is quite limited in the short run. Moreover, intensified globalization processes make efficient market hypothesis vulnerable, especially if we consider heterogeneity of expectations and risk preferences. Therefore, it is hard to accept monetarist models as ideal representation of the exchange rate volatility puzzle complexity. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Kurs walutowy; Prognozowanie kursów walut; Monetaryzm

EN

Exchange rates; Exchange rates forecasting; Monetarist

• Czasopismo: Gospodarka w Praktyce i Teorii
• Rocznik: 2008
• Numer: nr 3
• Strony: 19--29

Twórcy

autor

Bogna Gawrońska-Nowak

autor

Grzegorz Walerysiak

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