Simulation Model Measuring Risk Changes and Its Economic Aspects as a Consequence of Flood Control Investments

• Autorzy: István Takács , Beáta Olga Felkai

Warianty tytułu

Symulacyjny model do mierzenia ryzyka zmian i aspekty ekonomiczne jako konsekwencja inwestycji kontroli przeciwpowodziowej

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

A special scope of economic analyses is constituted by the problems, where direct economic benefit can not be measured and economic utility can be justified by means of taking into account indirect benefits only. Such a special problem is also the question of the construction and maintenance of flood control investments. Floods are regularly inflicting significant losses on human life, damages on material and natural resources in several places of the world. In the course of the present research, a simulation model was used to investigate, that by which direct and indirect benefits should flood control investments (construction of earth-dikes, green coating of the dikes) be realized by conscious reduction of the flood risk. The basis for the model was composed of the cash flow, being applied in traditional investment-efficiency calculation and the net present value, calculated from it, as well as of the internal rate of return. Along with the stochastic occurrence of flood effects (covering duration, flood level), risk changing and the conditions of economical refund were investigated by means of the Monte Carlo simulation. (This paper was supported by the research project OTKA No. K 63231). (original abstract)

W opracowaniu przedstawiono bardzo aktualny temat dotyczący budowy modelu analizy kasztów-zysków w zakresie zabezpieczenia się przed powodziami. Wykorzystano do tego celu metody symulacyjne Monte Carlo. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Disaster; Early warning system; Cost analysis; Monte Carlo method

PL

Katastrofa; System wczesnego ostrzegania; Analiza kosztów; Metoda Monte Carlo

• Czasopismo: Roczniki Naukowe Stowarzyszenia Ekonomistów Rolnictwa i Agrobiznesu
• Rocznik: 2006
• Tom: 8
• Numer: z. 6
• Strony: 137--141

Twórcy

autor

István Takács

autor

Beáta Olga Felkai

Bibliografia

• Brealey M., Myers S.C. 1991: Principles of corporate finance. Fourth Edition. International edition. McGraw-Hill, Inc. 1175 p.
• Gittinger P.J. 1982: Economic analysis of agricultural projects. EDI series in Economic Development. Baltimore and London, 445 p.
• Szlávik L. 1999: Ideas on the current problems of flood defence in Hungary. Hidrológiai Közlöny, 79. évf. 4. 241-260 pp.