Consumer Inflation Expectations in Europe: Some Cross-country Comparisons

• Autorzy: Tomasz Łyziak , Ewa Stanisławska

Warianty tytułu

Oczekiwania inflacyjne konsumentów w Europie - analiza porównawcza

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The aim of our study is to analyse selected features of consumers' inflation expectations in European countries. After assessing reliability of survey measures of inflation expectations available we use the measures fulfilling our requirements to examine three features of inflation expectations, i.e. their forecasting accuracy, causality between inflation expectations and actual future inflation and the long-run convergence of expectations to the actual future inflation. The forecasting accuracy of quantified measures of inflation expectations is rather poor and similar to naive forecasts. Even if they provide biased predictors of future inflation, there exists causality between actual future inflation and current expectations. Our analysis may be useful in selecting adequate measures of consumer inflation expectations embodying information important in monetary policy making. (original abstract)

Celem pracy jest przeanalizowanie wybranych cech oczekiwań inflacyjnych konsumentów w krajach europejskich. Po dokonaniu oceny wiarygodności różnych ankietowych miar oczekiwań inflacyjnych, wskaźniki uznane za wiarygodne zostały wykorzystane do przetestowania trzech cech oczekiwań inflacyjnych, tj. ich własności prognostycznych, przyczynowości między oczekiwaniami i przyszłą inflacją i długookresowej zależności między przyszłą inflacją a oczekiwaniami. Własności prognostyczne skwantyfikowanych miar oczekiwań inflacyjnych są raczej słabe, podobne do prognoz naiwnych. Pomimo, iż miary te są obciążonymi predykatorami przyszłej inflacji, istnieje przyczynowość między przyszłą inflacją a bieżącymi oczekiwaniami. Wyniki naszej analizy mogą być użyteczne przy wyborze miar oczekiwań inflacyjnych o stosunkowo największej zawartości informacyjnej istotnej przy prowadzeniu polityki pieniężnej. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Inflation; Consumer research; Consumer behaviour; Comparative analysis

PL

Inflacja; Badania konsumenckie; Zachowania konsumenta; Analiza porównawcza

• Czasopismo: Bank i Kredyt
• Rocznik: 2008
• Numer: nr 9
• Strony: 14--28

Twórcy

autor

Tomasz Łyziak

autor

Ewa Stanisławska

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