Zmiany kursu walutowego a dynamika cen w Polsce

• Autorzy: Piotr Misztal

Warianty tytułu

Exchange Rate Changes and Price Adjustments in Poland

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Celem artykułu jest analiza wpływu zmian kursu walutowego na dynamikę cen w Polsce. Wiedza dotycząca zakresu przenoszenia zmian kursowych na ceny pozwala na ocenę wpływu zmian kursów walutowych na krajową inflację i tym samym na politykę monetarną banku centralnego. Wyniki badań empirycznych wskazują, że w przenoszenie zmian kursowych na ceny importowe, produkcyjne i konsumpcyjne w Polsce jest niepełne, zarówno w krótkim jak i długim okresie czasu. Rezultaty badań są zgodne z argumentami teoretycznymi, wskazującymi na generalnie mniejszy stopień przenoszenia zmian kursowych na ceny importowe towarów bardziej przetworzonych i większy stopień przenoszenia w przypadku towarów mniej przetworzonych. Co więcej, stopień przenoszenia zmian kursowych na ceny importowe wyrobów przemysłowych wzrasta wraz ze wzrostem stopnia ich substytucyjności, a stopień przenoszenia zmian kursowych na ceny importowe surowców i artykułów rolno-spożywczych zmniejsza się w miarę spadku stopnia ich substytucyjności. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The aim of the article is to present the influence of exchange rate changes on the price dynamics in Poland. Knowledge of the exchange rate pass-through to prices permits assessment of how exchange rates affect inflation and monetary policy. The phenomenon was found of an incomplete exchange rate pass-through to import, producer and consumer prices in Poland, in the short- and long-run. These results are in line with theoretical arguments and indicate that in general the degree of the exchange rate pass-through to import prices is lower in the case of more processed goods and higher in the case of less processed ones. What is more, the degree to which exchange rates are passed through to prices of industrial goods increases with the increase of their substitutability, while the level of exchange rate pass-through to import prices of raw materials, agricultural and food products decreases together with their lower substitutability. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Kurs walutowy; Ceny; Zmienność kursu walutowego; Produkcja; Konsumpcja

EN

Exchange rates; Prices; Exchange rate variability; Production; Consumption

• Czasopismo: Ekonomista
• Rocznik: 2009
• Numer: nr 4
• Strony: 455--477

Twórcy

autor

Piotr Misztal

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