Metody weryfikacji stabilności fiskalnej - porównanie własności

• Autorzy: Michał Mackiewicz

Warianty tytułu

Methods of Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: a Comparison

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Przedmiotem opracowania jest porównanie własności stosowanych w literaturze metod weryfikacji stabilności fiskalnej. Stabilność rozumiana jest jako zdolność sektora finansów publicznych do kontynuowania dotychczasowej polityki bez naruszania międzyokresowego ograniczenia budżetowego sektora publicznego. Wyniki symulacji pokazały, że badanie stabilności oparte na testowaniu stacjonarności i kointegracji zmiennych fiskalnych cechuje się poważnymi odchyleniami rozmiaru od założonego poziomu istotności. Lepsze wyniki osiągnięto, stosując testy oparte na oszacowaniu parametrów fiskalnej funkcji reakcji. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The paper compares alternative methods of assessing fiscal sustainability using the Monte Carlo experiment. We show that most methods, including widely-used stationarity and cointegration tests, suffer from low power or serious size distortions. Our results point at methods based on fiscal reaction functions as the most reliable tool. Testing for statistical significance of the parameter measuring impact of the stock of debt on the primary surplus has low size distortion and good power when compared to other methods. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Finanse publiczne; Deficyt budżetowy; Dług publiczny

EN

Public finance; Budget deficit; Public debt

• Czasopismo: Bank i Kredyt
• Rocznik: 2010
• Numer: nr 2
• Strony: 87--109

Twórcy

autor

Michał Mackiewicz

• Uniwersytet Łódzki

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