Wykorzystanie symulacji i prognoz gospodarczych w aktualizacji opłaty rocznej z tytułu użytkowania wieczystego

• Autorzy: Radosław Wiśniewski

Warianty tytułu

The Use of Business Simulations and Forecasts in Real Estate Management Planning

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

W artykule omówiono symulacje i prognozy gospodarcze wykorzystywane w gospodarowaniu zasobami nieruchomości. Opisano model aktualizacji opłat rocznych z tytułu użytkowania wieczystego (model AUW) oraz przedstawiono symulacje i prognozowanie wpływów do budżetu gminy z tytułu aktualizacji rocznych opłat za użytkowanie wieczyste.

EN

The objective of real estate management is to induce specific transformations, i.e. to modify the existing real estate management system in order to satisfy the present and the future needs of the market. The relevant modification efforts have quite specific goals because they concern real estate. Real estate management policies should involve a full set of practical activities to ensure that real estate assets deliver optimal benefits. Moreover, the process of real estate management should be planned, consciously implemented, controlled, financially secured and supported with the required knowledge, resources and personnel. In a word, it should be organized. Real estate management processes in Poland rely on market forecasts. Pursuant to the provisions of article 23 subparagraph Id item 2 of the Act on Real Estate Management (Journal of Laws, 2004, no. 261, item 2603, as amended), the following forecasts have to be developed as part of real estate management plans: the release of real estate from local assets and the inclusion of new real estate in local assets, expenditures related to the release of real estate from local assets and the inclusion of new real estate in local assets, revenues generated in virtue of perpetual usufruct fees and perpetual management fees charged on the State Treasury's real estate, updates of perpetual usufruct fees and perpetual management fees charged on the State Treasury's real estate. The majority of forecasts concern business procedures which directly reflect the situation encountered by the manager of real estate assets in the market. Forecasting procedures should include modules that facilitate the performance of simulations with the use of selected variables. Such simulations should deliver a given set of predictions for the variables, thus narrowing down the area where the forecast phenomenon could be located. Through the use of limiting parameters, simulations should also account for unmeasurable parameters, such as the social and economic situation on the local market or the affordability of the betterment levy. Forecasts should be developed along with models of the economic phenomena they concern. In the first stage, a model of the predicted phenomenon should be created, with the subsequent stages dealing with the relevant simulations and forecasting process. This study presents: 1) the results of a simulation of the process for updating the annual fees charged on land in perpetual usufruct for the purpose of developing real estate management plans, 2) anticipated revenues generated by the municipality in virtue of the update of the annual fees charged on land in perpetual usufruct for the purpose of developing real estate management plans. Simulations will be performed with the use of software designed by the author. Business forecasts for real estate management plans will be mid-term and/or long-term, quantitative forecasts. They will be based on the results of simulation of the process of updating the annual fees charged on land in perpetual usufruct. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Prognozy gospodarcze; Gospodarka nieruchomościami; Użytkowanie wieczyste; Aktualizacja opłaty rocznej

EN

Economic forecast; Real estate economy; Long-term lease; Updating the annual fee

• Czasopismo: Studia i Prace Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
• Rocznik: 2010
• Numer: nr 10
• Strony: 199--212

Twórcy

autor

Radosław Wiśniewski

• Uniwersytet Warmińsko-Mazurski w Olsztynie

Bibliografia

• Bishop Ch.M. [1996], Neural Networks for Pattern Recognition, Oxford University Press.
• Gajda J.B. [2001], Prognozowanie i symulacje a decyzje gospodarcze, Seria: Academia Oeconomica, Wydawnictwo C.H. Beck, Warszawa.
• Gospodarowanie gminnymi zasobami nieruchomości [2008], red. R. Wiśniewski, Wydawnictwo UWM w Olsztynie, Olsztyn.
• Prognozowanie gospodarcze. Metody, modele, zastosowania, przykłady [1998], red. E. Nowak, Agencja Wydawnicza Placet, Warszawa.
• Prognozowanie gospodarcze. Metody i zastosowania [1999], red. M. Cieślak, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.
• Wiśniewski R. [2008], Wielowymiarowe prognozowanie wartości nieruchomości, Seria: Rozprawy i Monografie Nr 146, Wydawnictwo UWM w Olsztynie, Olsztyn.
• Wiśniewski R. [2009], Ekonometryczne modelowanie wykorzystywania zasobów nieruchomości, Acta Scientiarium Polonorum. Administratio Locorum, Wydawnictwo UWM w Olsztynie, Olsztyn.
• Zeliaś A. [1997], Teoria prognozy, PWE, Warszawa.