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2009 | 1 | nr 1 | 57--69
Tytuł artykułu

Bayesian Model Selection in the Analysis of Cointegration

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
In this paper we present the Bayesian model selection procedure within the class of cointegrated processes. In order to make inference about the cointegration space we use the class of Matrix Angular Central Gaussian distributions. To carry out posterior simulations we use an alorithm based on the collapsed Gibbs sampler. The presented methods are applied to the analysis of the price - wage mechanism in the Polish economy. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Tom
1
Numer
Strony
57--69
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • Cracow University of Economics, Poland
Bibliografia
  • [1] Banerjee A., Cockerell L., Russell B., (2001), An I(2) Analysis of Inflation and the Markup, Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 221-240.
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  • [3] Chikuse Y., (1990), The Matrix Angular Central Gaussian Distribution, Journal of Multivariate Analysis 33, 265-274.
  • [4] Chikuse Y., (2003), Statistics on Special Manifolds, Lecture Notes in Statistics, vol. 174, Springer-Verlag, New York.
  • [5] James A.T., (1954), Normal Multivariate Analysis and the Orthogonal Group, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 25, 40-75.
  • [6] Johansen S., (1996), Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Auto- Regressive Models, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • [7] Kass R.E., Raftery A.E., (1995), Bayes Factors, Journal of the American Statistical Association 90, 773-795.
  • [8] Kelm R., Majsterek M., (2005), An I(2) Analysis of Inflationary Processes in Poland, [in:] Macromodels 2004, Problems of Building and Estimation of Econometric Models, "Acta Universitatis Lodziensis", Folia Oeconomica 190, [ed.:] W. Welfe, A. Welfe, Łódz, 55-72.
  • [9] Kelm R., Majsterek M., (2006), The I(2) Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in Poland in the Transition Period 1995 - 2005, [in:] , 32-th International Conference Macromodels'2005, [ed.:] W. Welfe, A. Welfe, Łódz, 49-72.
  • [10] Kongsted H. Ch., (2003), An I(2) Cointegration Analysis of Small-Country Import Price Determination, Econometrics Journal 6, 53-71.
  • [11] Koop G., León-González R., Strachan R., (2006), Efficient Posterior Simulation for Cointegrated Models with Priors on the Cointegration Space, Working Paper No. 05/13, University of Leicester, Department of Economics.
  • [12] Koop G., Potter S. M., Strachan R., (2008), Re-examining the Consumption- Wealth Relationship: the Role of Model Uncertainty, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 40, 341-367.
  • [13] Liu J.S., (1994), The Collapsed Gibbs Sampler in Bayesian Computations with Applications to a Gene Regulation Problem, Journal of the American Statistical Association 89, 958-965.
  • [14] Newton M.A., Raftery A.E., (1994), Approximate Bayesian Inference by the Weighted Likelihood Bootstrap (with discussion), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. B 56, 3-48.
  • [15] Osiewalski J., (2001), Ekonometria bayesowska w zastosowaniach [Bayesian Econometrics in Applications], Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Krakowie, Kraków. (in Polish)
  • [16] Osiewalski J., Welfe A., (1998), The Price-Wage Mechanism: An Endogenus Switching Model, European Economic Review 42, 365-374.
  • [17] Pajor A., (2003), Procesy zmiennosci stochastycznej SV w bayesowskiej analizie finansowych szeregów czasowych [Stochastic Volatility (SV) Processes in Bayesian Analysis of Financial Time Series], Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Krakowie, Kraków. (in Polish)
  • [18] Strachan R.W., (2007), Bayesian Inference in Cointegrated I(2) Systems: a Generalisation of the Triangular Model, Econometric Reviews 26, 439-468.
  • [19] Strachan R.W., Inder B., (2004), Bayesian Analysis of the Error Correction Model, Journal of Econometrics 123, 307-325.
  • [20] Strachan R.W., van Dijk H.K., (2007), Bayesian Model Averaging in Vector Autoregressive Processes with an Investigation of Stability of the US Great Ratios and Risk of a Liquidity Trap in the USA, UK and Japan, EI 2007-11, Econometric Institute Report, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  • [21] Urbain J.P., (1992), On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 54, 187-207.
  • [22] Welfe A., Majsterek M., Florczak W., (1994), Model petli inflacyjnej w gospodarce polskiej - analiza kointegracyjna [The Model of the Inflationary Loop in the Polish Economy- Cointegration Analysis], Przeglad Statystyczny 41, 245-264. (in Polish)
  • [23] Welfe A., Majsterek M., (2000), Analiza kointegracyjna. Sprzezenie inflacyjne [The analysis of cointegration. The inflationary feedback], [in:] Gospodarka Polski w okresie transformsacji. Zasady modelowania ekonometrycznego, [ed.:] A. Welfe, PWE, Warszawa, 79-107. (in Polish)
  • [24] Welfe A., Majsterek M., (2002), Wage and Price Inflation in Poland in the Period of Transition: the Cointegration Analysis, Economics of Planning 35, 205-219.
  • [25] Wróblewska J., (2008), Bayesian Models in the Analysis of Cointegration (with Application to Modeling Inflation in Poland), [in:] Metody ilosciowe w naukach ekonomicznych, Ósme Warsztaty Doktorskie z Zakresu Ekonometrii i Statystyki, [ed.:] A. Welfe, Oficyna Wydawnicza SGH, Warszawa, 295 - 305.
  • [26] Zellner A., (1971) An Introduction to Bayesian Inference in Econometrics, J. Wiley, New York.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000169317434

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