Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession

• Autorzy: Ivan Savin , Peter Winker
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

For the private and public sector in any particular country it is crucial to know, which industries may exhibit comparative advantages, that for some reasons are not realized. This can efficiently help all current and potential actors to improve their economic strategy both at the micro- and macroeconomic level. In this paper we propose an approach of forecasting comparative advantages dynamics in foreign trade. The instrument is based on relative price differences and is efficient for countries in the process of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries confirms a good performance in the sense of predictive power of this instrument. On the example of Russia, experiencing a period of economic liberalization and with the prospect to join the WTO agreements, we demonstrate which sectors are most likely to contain comparative advantages in the near future. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Comparative advantage; Forecasting; Foreign trade; Export competitiveness; Competitive advantage

PL

Przewaga komparatywna; Prognozowanie; Handel zagraniczny; Konkurencyjność eksportu; Przewaga konkurencyjna

• Czasopismo: Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics (CEJEME)
• Rocznik: 2009
• Tom: 1
• Numer: nr 2
• Strony: 111--138

Twórcy

autor

Ivan Savin

• Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Germany

autor

Peter Winker

• Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Germany

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Identyfikatory

DOI

DOI:10.24425/cejeme.2009.12227