Slowdown or Recession? Forecasts Based on Composite Leading Indicator

• Autorzy: Miroslav Klucik , Jana Juriova
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The economy of Slovakia experienced a turning point in the 1^st half of 2008 and entered a phase of decline. The negative impacts of the global economic crisis became evident in the 2^nd half of 2008 and led into a recession in the 1^st quarter of 2009. The composite leading indicator was originally intended for forecasting of business cycle turning points between the decline and growth phases. The aim of this paper is to transform the qualitative information from composite leading indicator into quantitative forecast and verify whether the beginning of recession in Slovakia could have been identified in advance. The ARIMAX and error correction models are used for the composite reference series and GDP forecasts respectively. The final result shows that the composite leading indicator is useful not only for identifying turning points, but also for the prediction of recession phase. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Economic crisis; Economic recession; Business cycles; Forecasting

PL

Kryzys gospodarczy; Recesja gospodarcza; Cykl koniunkturalny; Prognozowanie

• Czasopismo: Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics (CEJEME)
• Rocznik: 2010
• Tom: 2
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 17--36

Twórcy

autor

Miroslav Klucik

• Institute of Informatics and Statistics (INFOSTAT), Slovakia

autor

Jana Juriova

• Institute of Informatics and Statistics (INFOSTAT), Slovakia

Bibliografia

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24425/cejeme.2010.119318