International Trade and Economic Growth in the Polish Economy

• Autorzy: Henryk Gurgul , Łukasz Lach
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper presents the results of examinations of linear and nonlinear causalities performed for international trade involving the Polish economy and its economic growth. In order to infer the impact of the world crisis on the Polish economy, two samples have been studied (containing quarterly data) – a full sample (Q1 1996–Q3 2009) and pre-crisis sample (Q1 1996–Q3 2008). The results of linear causality tests support the existence of feedback between the growth rate of exports and growth in gross domestic product (GDP) irrespectively of the time period chosen. For both the samples examined, no direct causal links between the growth rates of GDP and imports were detected. One can only suppose the existence of indirect links before the crisis. Bidirectional causality was found for growth rates of exports and imports only for the pre-crisis sample. Some weak evidence of a causal link running from the growth rate of imports to the growth rate of exports was also found for the period that covers the crisis, which may be interpreted as a confirmation of the fact that growth in imports also precedes growth in exports in bullish periods. It results from our computations that, at the time of the financial crisis of 2008, the main factor that caused Polish GDP growth to remain positive was domestic demand. The results of nonlinear causality analysis provided only weak evidence for causality running from GDP to exports, from GDP to imports and from imports to exports. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Export; Import; Economic growth; Foreign trade

PL

Eksport; Import; Wzrost gospodarczy; Handel zagraniczny

• Czasopismo: Operations Research and Decisions
• Rocznik: 2010
• Tom: 20
• Numer: nr 3-4
• Strony: 5--29

Twórcy

autor

Henryk Gurgul

• University of Science and Technology, Cracow, Poland

autor

Łukasz Lach

• University of Science and Technology, Cracow, Poland

Bibliografia

• [1] AHMAD J., KWAN A.C., Causality between exports and economic growth: empirical evidence from Africa, Economics Letters, 1991, 37, 243-248.
• [2] ANDREWS D.W.K., BUCHINSKY M., A Three-Step Method for Choosing the Number of Bootstrap Repetitions, Econometrica, 2000, 68 (1), 23-52.
• [3] AWOKUSE T.O., Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies, Economics Letters, 2007, 94 (3), 389-395.
• [4] BAEK E., BROCK W., A general test for Granger causality: Bivariate model, Technical Report, Iowa State University and University of Wisconsin, Madison, 1992.
• [5] BAHMANI-OSKOOEE M., ALSE J., Export growth and economic growth: an application of cointegration and error correction modeling, Journal of Developing Areas, 1993, 27 (4), 535-542.
• [6] BALASSA B., Exports and economic growth: further evidence, Journal of Development Economics, 1978, 5 (2), 181-189.
• [7] BALASSA B., Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock, Journal of Development Economics, 1985, 18, 23-35.
• [8] BEWLEY R., YANG M., On the size and power of system tests for cointegration, [In:] M. McAleer et al. (Eds.), Proceedings of Econometric Society of Australasian Meeting, Perth, Australia, 1996.
• [9] BROCK W., Causality, chaos, explanation and prediction in economics and finance, [In:] J. Casti, A. Karlqvist (Eds.), Beyond Belief: Randomness, Prediction and Explanation in Science, CRC Press, Boca Raton, Fla, 1991.
• [10] CETINTAS H., BARISIK S., Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case of Transition Economies, Transition Studies Review, 2009, 15 (4), 636-649.
• [11] CHELLIAH R.R., Significance of Alternative Concepts of Budget Deficit, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 1973, 20, 741-784.
• [12] CHEN A.S., LIN J.W., Cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality: analysis using the London Metal Exchange lead contract, Applied Economics, 2004, 36, 1157-1167.
• [13] CHOU P.H., ZHOU G., Using Bootstrap to Test Portfolio Efficiency, Annals of Economics and Finance, 2006, 2, 217-249.
• [14] CHOW P.C.Y., Causality between export growth and industrial performance: evidence from NICs, Journal of Development Economics, 1987, 26 (1), 55-63.
• [15] DARRAT A.F., Trade and development: the Asian experience, Cato Journal, 1986, 6, 695-699.
• [16] DAVISON A.C., HINKLEY D.V., Bootstrap Methods and Their Application, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1999.
• [17] DIKS C.G.H., DEGOEDE J., A general nonparametric bootstrap test for Granger causality, [In:] H.W. Broer, W. Krauskopf, G. Vegter (Eds.), Global analysis of dynamical systems, Institute of Physics Publishing, Bristol, United Kingdom, 2001.
• [18] DIKS C.G.H., PANCHENKO V., A note on the Hiemstra-Jones test for Granger non-causality, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2005, 9 (2), Article 4.
• [19] DIKS C.G.H., Panchenko V., A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2006, 30, 1647-1669.
• [20] DODARO S., Exports and growth: a reconsideration of causality, Journal of Developing Areas 1993, 27, 227-244.
• [21] DOLADO J.J., LÜTKEPOHL H., Making Wald tests work for cointegrated VAR systems, Econometrics Reviews, 1996, 15, 369-386.
• [22] DOYLE E., Export output causality: the Irish case 1953-93, Atlantic Economic Journal, 1998, 26 (2), 147-161.
• [23] FEDER G., On exports and economic growth, Journal of Development Economics, 1982, 12, 59-73.
• [24] GILES D.E.A., GILES J.A., MCCANN E., Causality, unit roots, and export led growth: the New Zealand experience, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 1992, 1, 195-218.
• [25] GILES J.A., MIRZA S., Some pretesting issues on testing for Granger noncausality, Mimeo, Department of Economics, University of Victoria, 1998.
• [26] GILES J.A., WILLIAMS C.L., Export led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some noncausality results, Econometric Working Paper EWP9901, Department of Economics, University of Victoria, 1999.
• [27] GRANGER C.W.J., NEWBOLD P., Spurious regression in econometrics, Journal of Econometrics, 1974, 2, 111-120.
• [28] GRANGER C.W.J., Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross spectral methods, Econometrica, 1969, 37, 424-438.
• [29] GURGUL H., LACH Ł., Linear versus nonlinear causality of DAX companies, Operations Research and Decisions, 2009, 3, 27-46.
• [30] HACKER R.S., HATEMI-J.A., Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application, Applied Economics, 2006, 38, 1489-1500.
• [31] HAMILTON J.D., Time Series Analysis, 1994, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
• [32] HELPMAN E., KRUGMAN P., Market Structure and Foreign Trade, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1985.
• [33] HIEMSTRA C., JONES J.D., Testing for linear and nonlinear Granger causality in the stock price-volume relation, Journal of Finance, 1994, 49, 1639-1664.
• [34] HOROWITZ J.L., Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications, Chapter 7: Bootstrap methods in econometrics: Theory and numerical performance, Cambridge University Press, 1995.
• [35] HSIAO M.C.W., Tests of causality and exogenity between exports and economic growth: the case of the Asian NIC's, Journal of Economic Development, 1987, 12 (2), 143-159.
• [36] JUNG W.S., MARSHALL P.J., Exports, growth and causality in developing countries, Journal of Development Economics, 1985, 18 (1), 1-12.
• [37] KWIATKOWSKI D., PHILLIPS P.C.B., SCHMIDT P., SHIN Y., Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: how sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?, Journal of Econometrics, 1992, 54, 159-178.
• [38] LACH Ł., Application of bootstrap methods in investigation of size of the Granger causality test for integrated VAR systems, Managing Global Transition, 2010, 8, 167-186.
• [39] LOTZ R.R., MORSS E.R., Measuring Tax Effort in Developing Countries, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 1967, 14.
• [40] LÜTKEPOHL H., Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, 2nd Ed., Springer, New York, 1993.
• [41] MANTALOS P., A graphical investigation of the size and power of the Granger causality tests in integrated-cointegrated VAR systems, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2000, 4, Issue 1, paper No. 2.
• [42] MICHAELY M., Exports and growth: an empirical investigation, Journal of Development Economic, 1977, 4 (1), 149-153.
• [43] PHILLIPS P.C.B., Understanding the spurious regression in econometrics, Journal of Econometrics, 1986, 33, 311-340.
• [44] RAM R., Exports and economic growth in developing countries: evidence from time series and cross-section data, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1987, 36, 51-72.
• [45] RAMOS F.F.R., Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from Causality and Cointegration Analysis, Economic Modelling, 2001, 18, 613-623.
• [46] SHAN J., SUN F., On the export led growth hypothesis for the little dragons: an empirical reinvestigation, Atlantic Economic Journal, 1998, 26, 353-371.
• [47] SIMS C.A., Money, income, and causality, The American Economic Review, 1972, 62, 540-552.
• [48] SKAUG H.J., TJØSTHEIM D., Nonparametric tests of serial independence, [In:] T. Subba Rao (Ed.), Developments in time series analysis, Chapman and Hall, London, 1993.
• [49] THORNTON J., Cointegration, causality and export led growth in Mexico, 1895-1992, Economics Letters, 1996, 50, 413-416.
• [50] TODA H.Y., Finite sample properties of likelihood ratio tests for cointegration ranks when linear trends are present, Review of Economics and Statistics, 1994, 76, 66-79.
• [51] TODA H.Y., YAMAMOTO T., Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes, Journal of Econometrics, 1995, 66, 225-250.
• [52] TYLER W.G., Growth and export expansion in developing countries: some empirical evidence, Journal of Development Economics, 1981, 9, 121-130.
• [53] VENABLES A., Equilibrium locations of vertically linked industries, International Economic Review, 1996, 37, 341-359.
• [54] XU Z., On the causality between export growth and GDP growth: an empirical evidence, Review of International Economics, 1996, 4 (6), 172-184.
• [55] ZAPATA H.O., RAMBALDI A.N., Monte Carlo evidence on cointegration and causation, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1997, 59, 285-298.