Ceny ropy naftowej i ich prognozowanie

• Autorzy: Tomasz Więcław

Warianty tytułu

Prices of Crude Oiland and the Forecast of Their Future Quotation

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Celem artykułu jest określenie czynników krótko- i długookresowych, które wpływają na zmienność rynku ropy naftowej i produktów pochodnych ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem wpływu kapitałów spekulacyjnych. (fragment tekstu)

EN

This article is another contribution to the discussion on the reasons for fluctuations in the quotations of the worldwide energy resources, taking into special consideration the crude oil market. From the historical point of view the crude oil market and the petrochemical sector developed due to many different economic mechanisms. These processes were described by many different world reports issued by international agencies. The most important hypothesis the author is trying to prove is in fact a theory that the main reason for changes in prices on the oil market is the long term, structural relation-ships between demand and supply, supported by the short term political and coincidental phenomena. This analysis concerned the world oil market from 1970-2008, in which there was a full long term economic cycle, consisting of two phases: upward and downward. Besides, there were shorter demand-supply cycles which had one characteristic feature of making these upward and downward phases shorter and shorter. In the summary the author listed long and short term conditions influencing the prices of crude oil quotations in the future and he presented economic cycles of Kondratiew and Juglar's as models of making future price forecasts. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Ropa naftowa; Ceny ropy naftowej; Produkt krajowy brutto (PKB)

EN

Oil; Oil prices; Gross domestic product (GDP)

• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe / Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu
• Rocznik: 2010
• Numer: nr 132
• Strony: 201--214

Twórcy

autor

Tomasz Więcław

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