Dlaczego banki centralne nie powinny podwyższać celu inflacyjnego?

• Autorzy: Piotr Ciżkowicz , Andrzej Rzońca

Warianty tytułu

Why Shouldn't Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets?

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

O. Blanchard i współautorzy [2010] zaproponowali, aby banki centralne w obecnej sytuacji gospodarczej podniosły cele inflacyjne z obecnych 2% do około 4%. Miałoby to poszerzyć pole dla przyszłych obniżek stóp procentowych w sytuacji ewentualnego kolejnego kryzysu finansowego (lub innego silnego wstrząsu). Autorzy poddają tę propozycję krytycznej ocenie. Najpierw przywołują dwa argumenty podniesione już wcześniej w dyskusji nad tą propozycją (w krótkim okresie – wzrost kosztów obsługi długów, w długim okresie – wzrost ekonomicznych i społecznych kosztów inflacji). Do tych dwóch linii krytyki dołączają i uzasadniają trzeci argument: ryzyko powstawania niebezpiecznych baniek spekulacyjnych na rynkach aktywów. Autorzy twierdzą, że w świetle doświadczeń z globalnego kryzysu finansowego pożądane byłoby wykorzystanie do badania procesów inflacyjnych, obok analizy ekonomicznej, również analizy monetarnej. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

O. Blanchard et al. [2010] proposed that, in the current economic situation central banks increase their inflation targets from 2% to about 4%. This should provide the room for further reductions of interest rates in the case of a possible next financial crisis (or another strong shock). The authors give a critical assessment of that proposal. They recall, first of all, two arguments against the increase of inflationary targets that have been raised hitherto, namely the increase in the costs of debt service in the short run, and the increase in economic and social costs of inflation in the long run. They also add and justify the third argument: the risk of the emergence of dangerous speculative bubbles in asset markets. The authors suggest that, in the light of the experience acquired from the global financial crisis, the research on inflationary processes should employ both purely economic and monetary analysis. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Inflacja; Bezpośredni cel inflacyjny; Polityka pieniężna; Kryzys finansowy; Banki centralne

EN

Inflation; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy; Financial crisis; Central banks

• Czasopismo: Ekonomista
• Rocznik: 2011
• Numer: nr 5
• Strony: 677--690

Twórcy

autor

Piotr Ciżkowicz

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie

autor

Andrzej Rzońca

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie

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