Economic Policy in Central Eastern Europe : Unit Root Consequences

• Autorzy: Lukas Mazal , Kevin J. Rowles

Warianty tytułu

Polityka gospodarcza w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej : konsekwencje pierwiastków jednostkowych

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This article aims to provide an econometric justification for economic policy in the Central and Eastern European area by examining the stability of real GDP and industrial production in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, and Hungary. Stability of GDP and industrial production is examined by unit root tests. The Dickey-Fuller (1979) unit root test indicates unit root in case of all four outputs. In case of the industrial production, the results are mixed. Nonetheless, difference stationarity of the GDP implies that there is no deterministic time trend in GDP. Therefore, there is no short-run trend reversion. Deep and long recessions are not only possible but also even likely. Thus, actions of economic policy can be regarded as justified because they are desirable to boost economy in order to reverse these recessions. This study can also be regarded as an extension of unit root tests to the post communist countries. (original abstract)

Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie ekonometrycznego uzasadnienia dla polityki gospodarczej w Europie Środkowej i Wschodniej, w oparciu o badania stabilności realnego PKB i produkcji przemysłowej w Czechach, na Słowacji, w Polsce i na Węgrzech. Stabilność produkcji przemysłowej i PKB badana jest za pomocą testów pierwiastków jednostkowych. Test Dickey-Fullera (1979) wskazuje pierwiastek jednostkowy w przypadku wszystkich czterech państw. W przypadku produkcji przemysłowej rezultaty są różne. Niemniej jednak, stacjonarność różnic PKB oznacza brak trendu deterministycznego PKB, w związku z czym w krótkim okresie nie następuje zwrot trendu. Głęboka i długa recesja są nie tylko możliwe, ale nawet prawdopodobne. Tak więc działania polityki gospodarczej mogą być uznane za uzasadnione, ponieważ mają za zadanie pobudzenie gospodarki w celu odwrócenia recesji. Przedstawione opracowanie stanowi także rozszerzenie testów pierwiastków jednostkowych w krajach postkomunistycznych. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Classical economy; Keynesian theory; Economic policy; Dickey-Fuller test; Unit root test

PL

Ekonomia klasyczna; Keynesizm; Polityka gospodarcza; Test Dickeya-Fullera (test DF); Test pierwiastka jednostkowego

• Czasopismo: Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Oeconomia
• Rocznik: 10 (2011)
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 57--68

Twórcy

autor

Lukas Mazal

• University of Huddersfield, United Kingdom

autor

Kevin J. Rowles

• University of Huddersfield, United Kingdom

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