Statystyczne prognozy wybranych zjawisk społeczno-gospodarczych w aglomeracji krakowskiej

• Autorzy: Anna Harańczyk

Warianty tytułu

Statistical forecasting of some selected social and economic phenomena in Cracow agglomeration

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

EN

In the paper employment a investment forecasting has been made in general - for socialized Kraków agglomeration and sectionally for, seven selected branches of national economy as well as industrial and construction production for the year 1980. Forecasting of studied variables has been determined on the basis of progress tendencies models, recursive models and simultaneous equation models. 900 trend functions have been studied and estimated choosing the optimal trend approximates on the basis of which prognoses for 1980 have been made. Basing on error analysis of ex post prognoses the choice of optimal length of time series in development studies of Krakow has been determined for 15-20 years. The period 1961-1975 has been used for further investigations in building forecasting of studied variables on the basis of descriptive models. Several variants of employment, investment and production forecasting have been constructed for the year 1980 and next compared with the values of social and economic development plan of Krakow for this year. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Infrastruktura społeczno-gospodarcza; Prognozowanie zjawisk ekonomiczno-społecznych

EN

Socio-economic infrastructure; Economic and social phenomenon forecasting

• Czasopismo: Folia Oeconomica Cracoviensia
• Rocznik: 1980
• Tom: 23
• Strony: 71--92

Twórcy

autor

Anna Harańczyk

Bibliografia

• Z. Pawłowski, Modele ekonometryczne równań opisowych, Warszawa 1963
• Z. Pawłowski, Teoria prognozy ekonometrycznej w gospodarce socjalistycznej, Warszawa 1974
• A. Zeliaś, Ekonometryczne metody budowy prognoz (na przykładzie produkcji roślinnej), Zeszyty Naukowe WSE w Krakowie, Seria Specjalna, Rozprawy Habilitacyjne, 1970, nr 20