Globalna nierównowaga płatnicza i obecny kryzys finansowy

• Autorzy: Karol Lutkowski
• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Od wielu już lat, zwłaszcza od połowy minionej dekady 2001-2010, wielkim problemem międzynarodowych stosunków finansowych i ogólnoekonomicznych stała się głęboka, długotrwała nierównowaga płatnicza na głównych kierunkach przepływów gospodarczych. Jej wyrazem są permanentne nadwyżki w bilansach obrotów bieżących jednej grupy krajów i odpowiadające im, równie chroniczne, deficyty obrotów bieżących innej grupy krajów. Sprawą zagadkową jest przy tym zwłaszcza rola, skala i kierunek strumieni kapitałowych, jakie towarzyszą tej nierównowadze. Potoki kapitałów (w ujęciu netto) płyną mianowicie od krajów słabiej rozwiniętych, a więc uboższych i potrzebujących doinwestowania, do wyżej rozwiniętych i bogatszych, czyli zasobniejszych także w zainwestowany już kapitał. W tym opracowaniu uwaga autora koncentruje się tylko na nierównowadze globalnej, a zwłaszcza na jej centralnym i szczególnie reprezentatywnym fragmencie, jakim niewątpliwie jest wielki brak równowagi obrotów na linii Chiny i Stany Zjednoczone.

EN

Economic debate on the nature of the most pressing issues facing the world economy in the first decade of the XXI century has been predominantly focused upon two problems. The first of them is the persistence and progressive growth of disequilibria in capital and trade accounts of the leading world economies (economic regions); while the second one concerns the sources and effects of the global financial crisis, which ensued in the wake of bursting of the credit bubble. The shake-up to the financial structure of the world economy in the aftermath of the crisis ultimately led to recession of unparalleled proportions, at least since the end of the Great Depression (1929-33). The effects of those developments are likely to linger for quite some time yet. An intriguing question arises, therefore, whether the two phenomena could have been interlinked in the sense that the period of growing disequilibria preceding the crisis could have created the conditions propitious to unleashing the forces, which brought about the meltdown. The problem remains even though this was certainly not the only important factor responsible for triggering the disaster. Having reviewed the most popular hypothesis advanced to explain the causes of the disequilibria, their merits and demerits, as well as the circumstances which led to the outbreak of the financial crisis, this article attempts to demonstrate that the disequilibria in question - and, in particular, the way of financing them - have indeed importantly contributed to the enhancement of the fragility of the world economy to destabilizing shocks, even though a number of other factors were also at play. In particular, with the benefit of hindsight, it may be argued persuasively that a prolonged period of excessively relaxed monetary policy in the USA at the turn of the century contributed decisively both to the emergence of the payments disequilibria and to the swelling of the asset market bubble. Nevertheless, reserves accumulating in the surplus countries were subsequently recycled back to the United States, thus fuelling the bubble even more. In any case, even though relative importance of disequilibria in originating the crisis may be disputed, one thing is certain, namely - that reducing the imbalances in internationalpayments undoubtedly remains one of the crucial preconditions of replacing the world economy on the path to sustainable growth, while keeping open the channels of free trade and unfettered long-term capital flows. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Kryzys finansowy; Bilans płatniczy; Polityka finansowa; Nierównowaga płatnicza

EN

Financial crisis; Balance of payments; Financial policy; Payment imbalances

• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe / Szkoła Główna Handlowa. Kolegium Gospodarki Światowej
• Rocznik: 2011
• Numer: nr 29
• Strony: 7--22

Twórcy

autor

Karol Lutkowski

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie

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