The Influence of Yield Curve Fitting Method on Forward Rate Correlations in Polish Market
During last two decades the understanding of a role which forward rates and their volatilities play in creating de-correlation among interest rates has increased significantly. It caused a need of deeper analysis of whole term structure from new perspective as a complex process changing over time. Both central banks and traders (market makers) are deeply interested in building an interest model which let represent present situation in the market without losing the credibility. This is why they are looking for such estimation's method which does not lead to deteriorate the correlation among instantaneous forward rates. The purpose of the article is to extract the instantaneous 7-days forward rates from Polish money market through the use of the Svensson model in two different ways: first where the set of parameters is estimated via least squares method based on rates and second based on prices. Then it is possible to compare the volatility of the so constructed implied forward rates and shapes of forward rate correlations' surfaces. It was found that both correlation and volatilities of the forward rates inherit their structure from the type of error estimation procedure.(original abstract)
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