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2010 | nr 28 | 167--186
Tytuł artykułu

Zmiany kursu walutowego a dynamika wzrostu gospodarczego w Polsce w okresie 1997-2009

Autorzy
Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Changes in the exchange rate and the growth rate in Poland in 1997-2009
Języki publikacji
PL
Abstrakty
W literaturze ekonomicznej wskazuje się na występowania dwóch sprzecznych ze sobą grup teorii dotyczących wpływu zmian kursów walutowych na dynamikę wzrostu gospodarczego. W tzw. modelach przesunięcia wydatków (expenditure switching models) autorzy sugerują, że realna deprecjacja waluty krajowej prowadzi do wzrostu eksportu netto w wyniku poprawy konkurencyjności cenowej krajowego eksportu, co ostatecznie skutkuje wzrostem krajowego PKB. Z kolei w tzw. modelach ograniczającej deprecjacji (contractionary depreciation models) stwierdza się, że realna deprecjacja waluty krajowej prowadzi do spadku dynamiki PKB ze względu na wzrost cen importowanych półproduktów i jednoczesny wzrost kosztów krajowej produkcji. W niniejszym opracowaniu analizuje się w głównym ujęciu wpływ zmian realnego efektywnego kursu złotego na dynamikę produktu krajowego brutto w Polsce w okresie 1997-2009. (abstrakt oryginalny)
EN
The aim of the article is to examine the impact of changes in the real effective PLN exchange rate onto the Polish GDP from 1997 Q1 to 2009 Q2. The analysis uses the Vector Autoregression Model (VAR). The results of the analysis revealed a negligible relationship between the changes in the real effective PLN exchange rate and the Polish GDP growth rate dynamics. The results could be explained - in the author's opinion - by the relatively low openness of the Polish economy measured by share in the total world trade and the low share of foreign trade in the GDP creation. The desk research confirmed as well that from 1997 to 2009 the Polish GDP growth was mainly influenced by the exchange rate demand channel. In the analysed period, the most effective instrument to influence the economic growth in Poland was the central bank monetary policy in the short run and the Government fiscal policy in the long run. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
167--186
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • Politechnika Radomska im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego
Bibliografia
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Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171215373

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