Zmiany kursu walutowego a dynamika wzrostu gospodarczego w Polsce w okresie 1997-2009

• Autorzy: Piotr Misztal

Warianty tytułu

Changes in the exchange rate and the growth rate in Poland in 1997-2009

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

W literaturze ekonomicznej wskazuje się na występowania dwóch sprzecznych ze sobą grup teorii dotyczących wpływu zmian kursów walutowych na dynamikę wzrostu gospodarczego. W tzw. modelach przesunięcia wydatków (expenditure switching models) autorzy sugerują, że realna deprecjacja waluty krajowej prowadzi do wzrostu eksportu netto w wyniku poprawy konkurencyjności cenowej krajowego eksportu, co ostatecznie skutkuje wzrostem krajowego PKB. Z kolei w tzw. modelach ograniczającej deprecjacji (contractionary depreciation models) stwierdza się, że realna deprecjacja waluty krajowej prowadzi do spadku dynamiki PKB ze względu na wzrost cen importowanych półproduktów i jednoczesny wzrost kosztów krajowej produkcji. W niniejszym opracowaniu analizuje się w głównym ujęciu wpływ zmian realnego efektywnego kursu złotego na dynamikę produktu krajowego brutto w Polsce w okresie 1997-2009. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The aim of the article is to examine the impact of changes in the real effective PLN exchange rate onto the Polish GDP from 1997 Q1 to 2009 Q2. The analysis uses the Vector Autoregression Model (VAR). The results of the analysis revealed a negligible relationship between the changes in the real effective PLN exchange rate and the Polish GDP growth rate dynamics. The results could be explained - in the author's opinion - by the relatively low openness of the Polish economy measured by share in the total world trade and the low share of foreign trade in the GDP creation. The desk research confirmed as well that from 1997 to 2009 the Polish GDP growth was mainly influenced by the exchange rate demand channel. In the analysed period, the most effective instrument to influence the economic growth in Poland was the central bank monetary policy in the short run and the Government fiscal policy in the long run. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Wzrost gospodarczy; Kurs walutowy; Konkurencyjność eksportu; Produkt krajowy brutto (PKB)

EN

Economic growth; Exchange rates; Export competitiveness; Gross domestic product (GDP)

• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe / Szkoła Główna Handlowa. Kolegium Gospodarki Światowej
• Rocznik: 2010
• Numer: nr 28
• Strony: 167--186

Twórcy

autor

Piotr Misztal

• Politechnika Radomska im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego

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