2011 | nr 95 Współczesne problemy demograficzne w dobie globalizacji : aspekty pozytywne i negatywne | 13--19
Konwergencja płodności krajów europejskich
Fertility Convergence in European Countries
W pracy podjęto próbę odpowiedzi na pytania, czy spadkowi dzietności obserwowanemu od lat 60. XX wieku towarzyszyła konwergencja płodności krajów europejskich oraz jak zróżnicowane ścieżki przemian płodności wyodrębnionych grup państw Europy wpływały na badany proces. (fragment tekstu)
This paper seeks to investigate if fertility levels in European countries between years 1960-2004 were becoming similar. This period is characterized by significant changes in fertility that ultimately have led to the lack of generations replacement in Europe. Explaining the reasons of fertility decline within the second demographic transition, researchers suggest to separate two pathways (e.g. Frejka, Sobotka, Hoem, Toulemon 2008) which result from different economic, social and cultural considerations in European countries. This division refers to countries from Western Europe and from Central and Eastern Europe. Taking this division into consideration, a convergence analysis has been performed for all European countries and for separated groups of countries. Total fertility rate was employed as a measure of fertility. In order to assess its convergence, sigma and beta convergences have been applied (e.g. Dorius 2008), which were adopted by demographers from research on convergence in economic growth models. Also, to evaluate the dynamics of the convergence process in European countries, an analysis of intermediate periods between 1960 and 2004 has been carried out. A global depiction of demographic processes convergence has been proposed by Wilson (2011). On the basis of a fertility change analysis conducted for the world population divided into three regions (with European countries as a one group among them) a long term convergence has been proved. With respect to long term fertility changes, the results achieved by this study accord with Wilson's findings. (original abstract)
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