Modelowanie wzrostu gospodarczego w krajach transformujących się przy użyciu modeli panelowych

• Autorzy: Agnieszka Kukułka , Dawid Piątek , Katarzyna Szarzec

Warianty tytułu

The modeling of economic growth in transition countries using panel data estimation

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Celem artykułu jest analiza determinant wzrostu gospodarczego w okresie transformacji postsocjalistycznej. Transformacja gospodarcza stanowiła jeden z aspektów tej transformacji, a jej celem była budowa gospodarki rynkowej. Wśród elementów transformacji gospodarczej wymienia się zwykle: stabilizację makroekonomiczną, liberalizację mikroekonomiczną oraz przebudowę instytucjonalną połączoną z prywatyzacją. W literaturze przedmiotu są analizowane determinanty wzrostu gospodarczego w okresie transformacji, zwykle jednak oddzielnie. W przeprowadzonej w niniejszym artykule analizie bierze się pod uwagę zależność wszystkich identyfikowanych czynników, wykorzystując możliwie najdłuższe szeregi czasowe. Zależność warunków początkowych, stabilizacji makroekonomicznej, reform rynkowych oraz zmian instytucjonalnych jest badana przy wykorzystaniu rocznych danych dla 25 krajów postsocjalistycznych i obejmuje okres od początku transformacji w danym kraju. Do oszacowania modelu przyjęto metodę dla danych panelowych GMM. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The study examines the determinants of economic growth and recovering from the transitional recession in the post-socialist countries. Whereas the various determinants of economic growth during the transition period are widely discussed in the literature separately, this study takes into consideration all of them simultaneously using the longest possible data set. The influences of initial conditions, macroeconomic stabilization, market reforms and institutions are investigated using yearly data for 25 countries beginning with the year of transition for a given country. A panel data model is employed to estimate the significance and influence of various determinants of GDP growth using GMM methodology. Results show that institutions have an impact on growth in transition and macroeconomic stabilization is a prerequisite for a positive growth rate of GDP. The initial conditions and market reforms are also important although "large" scale privatization has a negative impact on the rate of growth. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Wzrost gospodarczy; Reformy rynkowe; Modele panelowe; Przekształcenia ustrojowo-systemowe

EN

Economic growth; Market reforms; Panel model; Political and systemic transformations

• Czasopismo: Roczniki Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 2012
• Numer: nr 26 Modelowanie danych panelowych : teoria i praktyka. Cz. 1
• Strony: 29--44

Twórcy

autor

Agnieszka Kukułka

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu

autor

Dawid Piątek

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu

autor

Katarzyna Szarzec

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu

Bibliografia

• Ahrens J., Meurers M., How Governance Affects the Quality of Policy Reform and Economic Performance: New Evidence for Economies in Transition, "Journal for Institutional Innovation, Development & Transition" 2002, vol. 6.
• Balicki W., Recesja i ożywienie w transformacji ustrojowej. Szkic teorii, ZN AE Poznań, seria 1, z. 222, Poznań 1994.
• Berg A., Borensztein E.R., Sahay R., Zettelmeyer J., The evolution of output in transition economies: explaining the differences, International Monetary Fund, Working Paper 1999, no. 73.
• Blanchard O.J., Assessment of the economic transition in Central and Eastern Europe - theoretical aspects of transition, "American Economic Review" 1996, vol. 2.
• Blanchard O.J., Kremer M., Disorganization, "Quarterly Journal of Economics" 1997, November.
• Brunetti A., Kisunko G., Weder B., Institutions in transition. Reliability of rules and economic performance in former socialist countries, The World Bank, Working Paper 1997, no. 1809.
• Calvo G.A., Coricelli F., Output collapse in Eastern Europe: the role of credit, w: Eastern Europe in transition: from recession to growth?, red. M.I. Blejer, G.A. Calvo, F. Coricelli, A.H. Gelb, WB DP 196, Proceedings of a Conference on the Macroeconomic Aspects of Adjustment, 1993.
• Campos N.F., Context is everything. Measuring institutional change in transition economies, The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 2000, no. 2269.
• Campos N.F., Coricelli F., Growth in transition: what we know, what we don't, and what we should, "Journal of Economic Literature" 2002, September.
• Castanheira M., Popov V., Framework Paper on the Political Economics of Growth in Transition Countries, 2000, www.gdnet.org [dostęp 19.09.06].
• Cerović B., Nojković A., Transition and Growth: What was taught and what happened, "Economic Annals" 2009, vol. 54, no. 183, October-December.
• Cheung S.N.S., The curse of democracy as an instrument of reform in collapsed communist economies, "Contemporary Economic Policy" 1998, April.
• Christoffersen P., Doyle P., From inflation to growth: eight years of transition, International Monetary Fund, Working Paper 1998, no. 100.
• Dewatripont M., Roland G., Transition as a process of large-scale institutional change, "Economics of Transition" 1996, issue 1.
• Dragutinović-Mitrović R., Ivančev O., Driving forces of economic growth in the second decade of transition, "Economic Annals" 2010, vol. 40, no. 185, April-June.
• Falcetti E., Lysenko T., Sanfey P., Reforms and growth in transition: Re-examining the evidence, "Journal of Comparative Economics" 2006, vol. 34.
• 17. Fardmanesh M., Tan L., From command to market: A performance perspective for transition economies, Economic Growth Center, Yale University, Occasional Paper 2005, no. 7.
• Fidrmuc J., Democracy in Transition Economies: Grease or Sand in the Wheels of Growth?, Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI), Working Paper 2001, no. 9.
• Fidrmuc J., Economic reform, growth and democracy during post-communist transition, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) (London), Working Paper 2001, no. 372.
• Fidrmuc J., Liberalization, Democracy and Economic Performance during Transition, Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI), Working Paper 2000, no. 5.
• Fischer S., Sahay R., The transition economies after ten years, International Monetary Fund, Working Paper 2000, no. 30.
• Fischer S., Sahay R., Végh C.A., Stabilization and growth in transition economies: the early experience, "Journal of Economic Perspectives" 1996, no. 2.
• Godoy S., Stiglitz J.E., Growth, initial conditions, law and speed of privatization in transition countries: 11 years later, NBER, Working Paper 2006, no. 11992.
• Grogan L., Moers L., Growth empirics with institutional measures for transition countries, "Economic Systems" 2001, vol. 25.
• Havrylyshyn O., Recovery and growth in transition: a decade of evidence, International Monetary Fund, Staff Papers 2001, vol. 48.
• Havrylyshyn O., Izvorski I., Rooden R. van, Recovery and growth in transition economies 1990-97: a stylized regression analysis, International Monetary Found, Working Paper 1998, no. 141.
• Havrylyshyn O., Rooden R. van, Institutions matter in transition, but so do policies, Institutions matter in transition, but so do policies, International Monetary Fund, Working Paper 2000, no. 70.
• Heybey B., Murrell P., The relationship between economic growth and the speed of liberalization during transition, "Journal of Policy Reform" 1999, vol. 3, www.bsos.umd.edu/ econ/murrell/papers/speed5.pdf [dostęp 18.06.03].
• Iradian G., Rapid growth in transition economies. Growth-accounting approach, International Monetary Fund, Working Paper 2007, 07/164.
• Kim B.-Y., Pirttilä J., The Political Economy of Reforms: Empirical Evidence from Post-Communist Transition in the 1990s, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT, Discussion Papers 2003, no. 4.
• Kornai J., Transformational Recession: The Main Causes, "Journal of Comparative Economics" 1994, vol. 1.
• Krueger G., Ciolko M., A Note on Initial Conditions and Liberalization during Transition, "Journal of Comparative Economics" 1998, vol. 26.
• Megginson W.L., Netter J.M., From State To Market: A Survey Of Empirical Studies On Privatization, "Journal of Economic Literature" 2001, June.
• Moers L., How important are institutions for growth in transition countries?, The Tinbergen nInstitute, Discussion Papers 1999, no. 4, www.tinbergen.nl/discussionpapers/99004 [dostęp 02.04.07].
• Popov V., Shock therapy versus gradualism: the end of the debate (Explaining the magnitude of transformational recession), "Comparative Economic Studies" 2000, no. 1.
• Staehr K., Reforms and economic growth in transition economies: complementarity, sequencing nand speed, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT, Discussion nPapers 2003, no. 1.
• Winiecki J., The inevitability of a fall in output in the early stages of transition to the market:theoretical underpinnings, "Soviet Studies" 1991, no. 4.
• Wolf H.C., Transition strategies: choices and outcomes, "Princeton Studies in International Finance" 1999, no. 85.
• www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx [dostęp 05.10.2011].