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2004 | nr 74 | 83--93
Tytuł artykułu

Does the Leading Index Predict in Real Time?

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Języki publikacji
This paper finds that the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) improves real-time out-of-sample forecasts of economic growth over periods from 1 to 9 months ahead. This is in contrast to earlier work that found the LEI failed when the analysis shifted beyond historical fitting exercises within the sample. Our results indicate that changes in the components of the leading index are linked to structural and institutional changes and improve real-time forecasts. (fragment of text)
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