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The aim of this paper is to evaluate the predictive value of the Ifo ВС, especially at turning points. Section 2 provides an overview of two works on turning point predictions. Section 3 compares the development of the Ifo ВС with GDP for Germany as a reference series and evaluates the lead. Section 4 presents the results of turning point predictions. In Section 5 we calculate turning point probabilities using Bayes theorem. Section 6 summarises our findings. (fragment of text)
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Strony
167--184
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
autor
autor
- Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich
autor
- Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich
Bibliografia
- Deutsche Bundesbank. 1993. Saisonbereinigte Wirtschaftszahlen. Januar.
- Hymans S.H., 1973. On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points. "Brookings Papers on Economic Activity" 2, 339-84.
- Kunkel A., 2003. Zur Prognosefähigkeit des Ifo Geschäftsklimas und seiner Komponenten sowie die Überprüfung der "Dreimal-Regel. Ifo Discussion Papers 80.
- Lindlbauer J.D., 1996. Ausgewählte Einzelindikatoren. [in:] K.H. Oppenlander (ed.), Konjunkturindikatoren, Munich: Oldenbourg Verlag, 70-82.
- Naggl W., 1999. Konjunktur. Frankfurt am Main: Peter Lang.
- Niemira M.P., Klein P.A., 1994. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
- Oppenländer K.H., Poser G., 1989. Handbuch der Ifo-Umfragen. Berlin: Duncker & Humblot.
- Vaccara B.N., Zarnowitz V., 1978. Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators. "NBER Working Paper" 244.
- Zarnowitz V., 1992. Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting. Chicago, I11.: The University of Chicago Press. Paperback edition 1996.
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Bibliografia
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