Turning Point Predictions with the Ifo Business Climate

• Autorzy: Christian Hott , Andre Kunkel , Gernot Nerb
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the predictive value of the Ifo ВС, especially at turning points. Section 2 provides an overview of two works on turning point predictions. Section 3 compares the development of the Ifo ВС with GDP for Germany as a reference series and evaluates the lead. Section 4 presents the results of turning point predictions. In Section 5 we calculate turning point probabilities using Bayes theorem. Section 6 summarises our findings. (fragment of text)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Business cycles theory; Business cycles; Economic indicators

PL

Teoria cykli koniunkturalnych; Cykl koniunkturalny; Wskaźniki ekonomiczne

• Czasopismo: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 2004
• Numer: nr 74 Composite indicators of business activity for macroeconomic analysis
• Strony: 167--184

Twórcy

autor

Christian Hott

autor

Andre Kunkel

• Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich

autor

Gernot Nerb

• Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich

Bibliografia

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