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2004 | nr 74 | 395--404
Tytuł artykułu

International Synchronisation of Business Activity

Autorzy
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
This paper studies the synchronisation of Poland's growth cycles with the cyclical fluctuations in its foreign environment. It aims to study the existence of such a synchronisation and then - to measure its strength, using various approaches. The main conclusion is that the Polish business cycles (precisely: growth cycles, while all the calculations base on growth rates) are well synchronised with the cycles in the US and UK as well as with the cycles seen in some Central European countries. In the consequence, Polish growth cycles are strongly influenced by the international situation. Such a situation was especially noticeable in Poland at the end of 1998 and the beginning of 1999 (Russian crisis). Such an influence however existed during the whole decade of the 1990s and the beginning of the 21st century: it deepened the transformation crisis of 1990-91, accelerated Polish economic growth in the mid-1990s, later slowed it down after the burst of 'Internet bubble' in 2000, and in 2003, with the revival of Polish economy after zloty' depreciation (caused by the appreciation of euro against US dollar) stimulated Polish export. We can speculate that this influence will also exist in the future and with the recovery of the world economy, the Polish economy will also improve. (fragment of text)
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
395--404
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
Bibliografia
  • Artis M.J., Zhang W., 1997. International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?, "International Journal of Finance and Economics" 2. 1-16.
  • Beksiak J., et. al. 2003. Polska gospodarka w XX wieku. Eseje historyczno-ekonomiczne. (Polish economy in the Twentieth Century. Historical-economic essays). Łódź: Literatura.
  • Christodoulakis N., Dimelis S.P., Kollintzas T.. 1995. Comparisons of Business Cycles in the EC: Idiosyncrasies and Regularities. "Economica" 62, 1-27.
  • Dickerson A., Gibson H., Tsakalatos E., 1998. Business Cycle Correspondence in the European Union. "Empirica" 25.
  • Hodrick R., Prescott E., 1980. Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation. "Discussion Paper" 451. University of Warwick.
  • IMF. 2001. World Economic Outlook Database.
  • Jagiełło D., 2003. Economic Interrelations between Central and East European Countries. [in:] K. Piech (ed.), Economic Policy and Growth in Central and East European Countries, London: University College London - School of Slavonic and East European Studies, 47-57.
  • Piech K., 2001. Światowe recesje i polityka antykryzysowa a gospodarka Polski. (The impact of world recessions and anti-crisis policies on Poland's economy). Warszawa: Szkoła Główna Handlowa (Ph.D. dissertation).
  • Piech K., 2003. The Synchronisation of the Polish Business Cycle. [in:] K. Piech (ed.). Economic Policy and Growth in Central and East European Countries, London: School of Slavonic and East European Studies - University College London 167-176.
  • Piech K., 2003a. Międzynarodowa synchronizacja cyklu koniunkturalnego Polski. (International synchronisation of business cycles in Poland). [in:]K. Piech, S. Pangsy-Kania (eds.), Diagnozowanie koniunktury gospodarczej w Polsa. (Diagnosing the economic activity in Poland), Warszawa: Elipsa, 85-95.
  • Piech K., 2003b. Integracja regionalna świata i Polski w aspekcie synchronizacji cykli koniunkturalnych. (Regional integration in the world and in Poland). [in:] K. Piech (ed.), Integracja regionalna - kryzysy gospodarcze. (Regional integration anc economic crises), Warszawa, 7-20.
  • Stefański R., 2003. Wpływ wahań koniunkturalnych na wymianę handlową miedzy Polską a Niemcami. (The influence of business fluctuations on the trade between Poland and Germany). [in:] K. Piech, S. Pangsy-Kania (eds.), Diagnozowanh koniunktury gospodarczej w Polsce. (Diagnosing the economic activity in Poland) Warszawa: Elipsa, 109-123.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171237337

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