International Synchronisation of Business Activity

• Autorzy: Krzysztof Piech
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper studies the synchronisation of Poland's growth cycles with the cyclical fluctuations in its foreign environment. It aims to study the existence of such a synchronisation and then - to measure its strength, using various approaches. The main conclusion is that the Polish business cycles (precisely: growth cycles, while all the calculations base on growth rates) are well synchronised with the cycles in the US and UK as well as with the cycles seen in some Central European countries. In the consequence, Polish growth cycles are strongly influenced by the international situation. Such a situation was especially noticeable in Poland at the end of 1998 and the beginning of 1999 (Russian crisis). Such an influence however existed during the whole decade of the 1990s and the beginning of the 21st century: it deepened the transformation crisis of 1990-91, accelerated Polish economic growth in the mid-1990s, later slowed it down after the burst of 'Internet bubble' in 2000, and in 2003, with the revival of Polish economy after zloty' depreciation (caused by the appreciation of euro against US dollar) stimulated Polish export. We can speculate that this influence will also exist in the future and with the recovery of the world economy, the Polish economy will also improve. (fragment of text)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Economic growth; Business cycles; International relations; Cyclical fluctuations

PL

Wzrost gospodarczy; Cykl koniunkturalny; Stosunki międzynarodowe; Wahania cykliczne

• Czasopismo: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 2004
• Numer: nr 74 Composite indicators of business activity for macroeconomic analysis
• Strony: 395--404

Twórcy

autor

Krzysztof Piech

• Warsaw School of Economics, Poland

Bibliografia

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• Jagiełło D., 2003. Economic Interrelations between Central and East European Countries. [in:] K. Piech (ed.), Economic Policy and Growth in Central and East European Countries, London: University College London - School of Slavonic and East European Studies, 47-57.
• Piech K., 2001. Światowe recesje i polityka antykryzysowa a gospodarka Polski. (The impact of world recessions and anti-crisis policies on Poland's economy). Warszawa: Szkoła Główna Handlowa (Ph.D. dissertation).
• Piech K., 2003. The Synchronisation of the Polish Business Cycle. [in:] K. Piech (ed.). Economic Policy and Growth in Central and East European Countries, London: School of Slavonic and East European Studies - University College London 167-176.
• Piech K., 2003a. Międzynarodowa synchronizacja cyklu koniunkturalnego Polski. (International synchronisation of business cycles in Poland). [in:]K. Piech, S. Pangsy-Kania (eds.), Diagnozowanie koniunktury gospodarczej w Polsa. (Diagnosing the economic activity in Poland), Warszawa: Elipsa, 85-95.
• Piech K., 2003b. Integracja regionalna świata i Polski w aspekcie synchronizacji cykli koniunkturalnych. (Regional integration in the world and in Poland). [in:] K. Piech (ed.), Integracja regionalna - kryzysy gospodarcze. (Regional integration anc economic crises), Warszawa, 7-20.
• Stefański R., 2003. Wpływ wahań koniunkturalnych na wymianę handlową miedzy Polską a Niemcami. (The influence of business fluctuations on the trade between Poland and Germany). [in:] K. Piech, S. Pangsy-Kania (eds.), Diagnozowanh koniunktury gospodarczej w Polsce. (Diagnosing the economic activity in Poland) Warszawa: Elipsa, 109-123.