Warianty tytułu
Some Remarks on Forecasting Economic Phenomena In Spatial Expression
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
W artykule przedstawione zostały niektóre proponowane w literaturze podejścia metodologiczne, mogące znaleźć zastosowanie w procesie prognozowania zjawisk gospodarczych o charakterze przestrzennym.
In the paper some methodological approaches proposed in the literature are discussed which are possible to be applied to forecasting socio-economic phenomena of spatial character. Theoretical cosniderations are illustrated on the empirical example of constructing national income forecasts for OPEC countries. Three approaches to elaborate forecasts are applied. The frist approach consists in use of models separately estimated for every country on the basis of dynamic series. In the second approach estimated model is applied on the basis of cross-sectional data concerning essential changes of model parameters during forecasting. The third approach consists in forecast development with the model estimated on the basis time sectional sample. Relatively the best results (in the sense of accuracy measure) were acquired with the first approach. The conclusion seems to be correct that the sample of countries under investigation is not homogeneous from the point of view of attributes analyzed. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
5--26
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
autor
- Akademia Ekonomiczna w Krakowie
Bibliografia
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171237603
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