Prognozowanie zmian aktywności budowlano-montażowej na podstawie wyników badań ankietowych GUS

• Autorzy: Jacek Jankiewicz

Warianty tytułu

Forecasting the Changes in the Constrution - Assembly Activity on the Basis of GUS Business tendency Test Survey

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Artykuł przedstawia ocene możliwości wykorzystania jakościowych wskaźników konstruowanych przez GUS do krótkookresowych prognoz aktywności ekonomicznej w budownictwie (fragment tekstu)

EN

The main focus of the paper is the possibility to use qualitative indicators calculated by GUS for the short-term forecasting. Describing the links between such variables and quantitative series, it is necessary to convert the former ones into a proper form. That is why construction-assembly production sales series were put in the form of monthly and annual growth rates as relative differences. From the correlation coefficients one can conclude that respondents when forming opinions on changes in the researched quantities, refer to the state from the analogous period of the previous year. Finally, two variants of the reference variable have undergone an analysis - indexes of annual growth rates as relative differences in current and constant prices. According to the used econometric causality test in Granger sense, all the series of indicators which were taken into account are the cause of the reference cycle. The results of the research which relate to the strength and character of interdependencies between qualitative indicators of the economic situation and a given reference series, support the usefulness of information obtained from the business tendency test method. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Wahania koniunkturalne; Budownictwo; Produkcja budowlana; Badania ankietowe

EN

Business fluctuations; Construction sector; Construction output; Questionnaire survey

• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe / Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu
• Rocznik: 2007
• Numer: nr 94
• Strony: 41--55

Twórcy

autor

Jacek Jankiewicz

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