The impact of global economic crisis on the intra-industry trade of Visegrad Group Countries and the EU-15
The economic and financial crisis has recently heavily affected European countries and this implied the changes in trade patterns. The firms, especially those that act within the Visegrad Group countries, but also participate in international product fragmentation, suffered dried-up liquidity and thus shortages in production. Consequently, many parts of supply chain were relocated. Some of items produced in the Visegrad Group were shifted to other locations. OECD stated that a massive fall (about 12.5 %) in global trade in 2009 was caused by the collapse in demand, especially the demand for machinery and transport equipment, problems with trade financing and vertically integrated nature of global supply chains. It also estimated that global trade decreased by 1 % due to new protectionist measures, however, on a global scale protectionist measures were significantly smaller than all growth-stimulating instruments. The previous studies suggested that the EU enlargement - with the economic growth boost - had a positive impact on the size and structure of intra-industry trade (later: IIT or two-directional or two-way trade) of the new member states with the EU- 15, both through the demand and supply side. However, due to the insufficient data, the knowledge of the influence of global economic circumstances, such as the crisis, on intra-industry trade of these countries was limited. Within the EU, the anti-crisis protectionist measures - if any - are far indirect and rather weak. So, the impact of the crisis on trade patterns should be visible by the other channels. The paper discusses the changes in trade patterns inside such strongly bound internally organism as the European Union. One can expect, that economic crisis may strongly weaken the convergence process of the Visegrad Group countries. The paper investigates this problem in trade aspect and it is one of responses of how much - and how - the crisis affects the intra-industry trade. It also examines the more dynamic form of two-way trade - marginal intra-industry trade (MIIT) - that is interpreted how big share of changes in trade (both rise and lose) is two-directional. This dynamic form of trade is important in determining the evolution in trade patterns during the changing environment, such as the phenomenon of economic and financial crisis, to observe structural adjustments in production and trade. (original abstract)
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