Forecasting Labour Market Situation on the Basis of Business Survey Data

• Autorzy: Aleksandra Gaweł
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The main aim of this paper is to estimate possibilities of using business survey data to forecast labour market situation. The motivation of undertaking this research is connected with two ideas. First, business survey data are treated as leading indicators for macroeconomic data, such as GDP or IPI (industrial production index). This research verifies if business survey data are also leading indicators for labour market variable as average employment. Second, all theories of labour market explain fluctuations on this market by changes of objective factors, as for example real wages of labour or labour productivity. This research estimates the impact of subjective factors of enterprises' decision on average employment. Research concerns on the situation in manufacturing industry in Poland in period 1993 - 2003. Numbers of workers in manufacturing industry are treated as dependent variable, business survey data are independent variables. After decomposition of time series, Granger causality is applied to identify the leads of independent variables and then, regression functions with leads of independent variables are created to forecast labour market situation. Their adjustments and quality of forecasts ex post let assume possibility of using business survey data to economic forecasts of labour market. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Statistical surveys; Labour market forecasting; Economic indicators

PL

Badania statystyczne; Prognozowanie rynku pracy; Wskaźniki ekonomiczne

• Czasopismo: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 2005
• Numer: nr 75 Economic tendency surveys and cyclical indicators : Polish contribution to the 27th CIRET conference
• Strony: 182--201

Twórcy

autor

Aleksandra Gaweł

• Poznań University of Economics, Poland

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