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2008 | nr 79 | 44--71
Tytuł artykułu

Usefulness of Survey-based Measures of Consumer Inflation Expectations in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia

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Języki publikacji
We apply different versions of probability and regression methods to quantify consumers' inflation perception and expectations in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The assessment of their usefulness leads us to the conclusion that survey-based measures are not sufficiently reliable in Hungary and Slovakia. Therefore analysing one of the requirements of the rational expectations hypothesis, namely their unbiasedness, we constrain our analysis to Czech and Polish consumers. It seems that consumer inflation expectations in both economies do not fulfill rational expectations. Therefore, when estimating New Keynesian Phillips curves we relax that theoretical assumption. (original abstract)
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