Usefulness of Survey-based Measures of Consumer Inflation Expectations in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia

• Autorzy: Ryszard Kokoszczyński , Tomasz Łyziak , Ewa Stanisławska
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

We apply different versions of probability and regression methods to quantify consumers' inflation perception and expectations in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The assessment of their usefulness leads us to the conclusion that survey-based measures are not sufficiently reliable in Hungary and Slovakia. Therefore analysing one of the requirements of the rational expectations hypothesis, namely their unbiasedness, we constrain our analysis to Czech and Polish consumers. It seems that consumer inflation expectations in both economies do not fulfill rational expectations. Therefore, when estimating New Keynesian Phillips curves we relax that theoretical assumption. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Inflation expectations; Inflation; Macroeconomic models; Questionnaire survey

PL

Oczekiwania inflacyjne; Inflacja; Modele makroekonomiczne; Badania ankietowe

• Czasopismo: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 2008
• Numer: nr 79 Survey data in economic research : Polish contribution to the 28th CIRET Conference
• Strony: 44--71

Twórcy

autor

Ryszard Kokoszczyński

autor

Tomasz Łyziak

autor

Ewa Stanisławska

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