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2008 | nr 79 | 149--168
Tytuł artykułu

Influence of Idiosyncratic and Macroeconomic Factors on Consumer Economic Sentiment of Lubelskie Region (Poland)

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Języki publikacji
In this article, using micro - macro logit models, based on the analysis of approximately 7 thousand questionnaires collected between the second quarter of 2001 and the first quarter of 2006 (20 quarterly surveys) it has been shown that the consumer economic sentiment in the Lubelskie region (voivodeship) depends on both individual features of consumers (idiosyncratic variables) and macroeconomic factors. The models were built according to the idea: "from general to specific modelling". The maximum likelihood method was applied for estimation of structural parameters of specified logit models. If pseudo R2 coefficient is assumed as a criterion the most effective was a model with two idiosyncratic explanatory variables (average number of persons in surveyed household and Income per capita in surveyed household), three macroeconomic explanatory variables (dynamics of the number of the employed in enterprise sector, dynamics of the number of job offers per 1000 registered unemployed and interest rates of 3-year consumer credits) and with a dummy variable describing polish accession to EU. This model was used to simulate changes in the growth of economic sentiment probability. Consumers with the highest values of idiosyncratic variables during accession shock period, when macroeconomic variables are biggest, face the greatest probability of economic sentiment improvement. Regardless of macroeconomic condition and the time, the probability of economic sentiment improvement for consumers with best individual situation exceeds 0.58. When macroeconomic variables values shift from lowest to highest regardless of idiosyncratic variable values, the increase in probability of economic sentiment improvement does not exceed 0.2925. It proves that idiosyncratic variables affect economic sentiment changes to a greater extent than macroeconomic variables. (original abstract)
Opis fizyczny
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