PL EN


Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2008 | nr 79 | 149--168
Tytuł artykułu

Influence of Idiosyncratic and Macroeconomic Factors on Consumer Economic Sentiment of Lubelskie Region (Poland)

Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
In this article, using micro - macro logit models, based on the analysis of approximately 7 thousand questionnaires collected between the second quarter of 2001 and the first quarter of 2006 (20 quarterly surveys) it has been shown that the consumer economic sentiment in the Lubelskie region (voivodeship) depends on both individual features of consumers (idiosyncratic variables) and macroeconomic factors. The models were built according to the idea: "from general to specific modelling". The maximum likelihood method was applied for estimation of structural parameters of specified logit models. If pseudo R2 coefficient is assumed as a criterion the most effective was a model with two idiosyncratic explanatory variables (average number of persons in surveyed household and Income per capita in surveyed household), three macroeconomic explanatory variables (dynamics of the number of the employed in enterprise sector, dynamics of the number of job offers per 1000 registered unemployed and interest rates of 3-year consumer credits) and with a dummy variable describing polish accession to EU. This model was used to simulate changes in the growth of economic sentiment probability. Consumers with the highest values of idiosyncratic variables during accession shock period, when macroeconomic variables are biggest, face the greatest probability of economic sentiment improvement. Regardless of macroeconomic condition and the time, the probability of economic sentiment improvement for consumers with best individual situation exceeds 0.58. When macroeconomic variables values shift from lowest to highest regardless of idiosyncratic variable values, the increase in probability of economic sentiment improvement does not exceed 0.2925. It proves that idiosyncratic variables affect economic sentiment changes to a greater extent than macroeconomic variables. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
149--168
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
Bibliografia
  • Agresti A., (1996), An Introduction to Categorical Data Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York.
  • Baekgaard H., (1995), Integrating Micro and Macro Models: Mutual Benefits, Conference Paper CP1995 10, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM), University of Canberra.
  • Business Tendency Surveys - A Handbook, (2003), Source OECD, Transition Economies, No. 8.
  • Curtin R.T., (2000), The Structure of Consumer Confidence: Comparisons Between the United States and Russia, Papers of 25th CIRET Conference, Paris, www.ciret.com.
  • Gangal M., (2000), Education and Labour Market Entry Across Europe: The Impact of Institutional Arrangements in Training Systems and Labour Markets, Working papers, No. 25, Mannheimer Zentrum fur Europäische Sozialforschung.
  • Golinelli R., Parigi G., (2004), Consumer Sentiment and Economic Activity: A Cross Country Comparison, Journal of Cycle Measurement and Analysis, Vol. 1, No. 2.
  • Greene W.H., (2003), Econometric Analysis, Fifth Edition, Prentice Hall, New Jersey, pp. 468-524.
  • Gruszczyński M., (2002), Modele i prognozy zmiennych jakościowych w finansach i bankowości, (Models and Forecasts of Quality Variables in Finances and Banking) SGH, Warszawa.
  • Hayo В., (1999), Micro and Macro Determinants of Public Support for Market Reforms in Eastern Europe, Working Paper B25, Zentrum fur Europaische Integrationsforschung, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms- Universität Bonn.
  • Hellwig Z., (1976), Przechodniość relacji skorelowania zmiennych losowych i płynące stąd wnioski ekonometryczne (Correlation Transitiveness Among Random Variables and Resulting Econometric Conclusions,), Przegląd Statystyczny, No. 1.
  • Herault N., (2005), A Micro - Macro Model for South Africa: Building and Linking a Microsimulation to a CGE Model, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Working Paper, No. 16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.
  • Jacobson K.С.Т., Roszbach J.L.K, (2004), Exploring relationships between Firms' Balance Sheets and the Macro Economy, Research Department, Sveriges Riksbank, 10337 Stockholm, www.atlres.com./finanseconfrence/jacobson.
  • Kowerski M., (2005), Wpływ przystąpienia Polski do Unii Europejskiej na nastroje gospodarcze w województwie lubelskim (Influence of Polish EU Accession on Economic Sentiments in Lubelskie Voivodeship), Gospodarka Narodowa, No. 7-8.
  • Maddala G.S., (1992), Introduction to econometrics, 2nd ed., Macmillan, New York.
  • McFadden D., (1974), Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behaviour, [in:] Zarembka P., Frontiers in econometrics, (Ed.), Academic Press, New York.
  • Okun A.M., (1962), Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance, Proceedings, Business and Economics Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association.
  • Robinson M., Baegaard H., (2002), Modelling Students in DYNAMOD-2, Technical Paper no. 23, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM), University of Canberra.
  • Souleles N.S., (2001), Consumer Sentiment: Its Rationality and Usefulness in Forecasting Expenditure, Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data, NBER Working Paper, 8410.
  • The Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys User Guide, (2004), European Commission, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs, Brussels. (19)
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171243759

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Musisz być zalogowany aby pisać komentarze.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.