Application of Fuzzy Numbers to the Estimation of an Ongoing Project's Completion Time

• Autorzy: Dorota Kuchta
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

A dynamic, interactive approach to the control of a project's realization time is proposed. The duration time of the project's activities is assumed to depend on certain factors whose influence may change in time. Based on the project's history up to a certain moment, the change in influence of these factors has been evaluated and estimates of the duration of activities which have not been started yet are updated. The estimates of the duration time of the activities and project are expressed in the form of fuzzy numbers. This allows us to keep a constant track of the risk of the project not keeping the deadline and to be aware of which factors influence delays, thus where to act in order to minimize the final delay while it is not yet too late - in the course of the project's realization, as early as possible. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Project realization control; Project management; Fuzzy sets

PL

Kontrola realizacji projektu; Zarządzanie projektem; Zbiory rozmyte

• Czasopismo: Operations Research and Decisions
• Rocznik: 2012
• Tom: 22
• Numer: nr 4
• Strony: 87--103

Twórcy

autor

Dorota Kuchta

• Wrocław University of Technology

Bibliografia

• [1] ALEFELD G., HERZBERGER J., Introduction to Interval Computation, Academic Press, New York 1983.
• [2] CHEN S.J., HWANG C.L., DE HWANG F.P., Fuzzy multiple attribute decision making: Methods and applications, Springer-Verlag, Berlin 1992.
• [3] CHO S., A linear Bayesian stochastic approximation to update project duration estimates, European Journal of Operational Research, 2009, 196, 585-593.
• [4] GHOSH S., JINTANAPAKANONT J., Identifying and assessing the critical risk factors in an underground rail project in Thailand: A factor analysis approach, International Journal of Project Management, 2004, 2 (8), 633-643.
• [5] HWANG B.-G., ZHAO X., GAY M.J.S., Public private partnership projects in Singapore: Factors, critical risks and preferred risk allocation from the perspective of contractors, International Journal of Project Management, 2013, 4, 424-433.
• [6] KUCHTA D., Miękka matematyka w zarządzaniu: Zastosowanie liczb przedziałowych i rozmytych w rachunkowości zarządczej, Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej, Wrocław 2001.
• [7] KUCHTA D., SKORUPKA D., Project risk management taking into consideration the influence of various risk levels based on linguistic approach, Proceedings of the FLINS 2012 Conference, Istanbul 2012.
• [8] KUCHTA D., ŚLUSARCZYK A., Size of buffers in critical chain method - case study, [in:] Project Management Development - Practice and Perspectives, Second International Scientific Conference on Project Management in the Baltic Countries, University of Latvia, Riga, 11-12.04.2013, 107-119.
• [9] SKORUPKA D., Identification and Initial Risk Assessment of Construction Projects in Poland, Journal of Management in Engineering, ASCE, 2008, 3, 120-127.
• [10] SKORUPKA D., Method of planning construction projects, taking into account risk factors, Operations Research and Decisions, 2009, 3, 119-128.
• [11] SKORUPKA D., Method of Construction Project Assessment, Lambert Academic Publishing Saarbrücken 2012.
• [12] Standish Group CHAOS Report, West Yarmouth, Massachusetts, 2012.
• [13] TURKSEN I.B., Measure of membership functions and their applications, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 1991, 4, 5-38.
• [14] VICKNAYSON T., MAWDESLEY M.J., Perception of human risk factors in construction projects: An exploratory study, International Journal of Project Management, 2004, 22 (2), 131-137.
• [15] WANG J., YUAN H., Factors affecting contractors' risk attitudes in construction projects: Case study from China, International Journal of Project Management, 2011, 29 (2), 209-219.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.5277/ord120405